Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 8 points in Arizona in a New York Times-Siena College poll released Monday.
The poll, conducted both before and after the White House confirmed Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus, showed Biden with 49 percent to Trump’s 41 percent. Six percent of respondents were undecided.
The survey, conducted entirely after last Tuesday’s presidential debate, was unchanged from a September Times-Siena poll.
The president won Arizona by about 4 points in 2016, but Biden has led in nearly all 2020 polling of the southern border state. Biden leads by an average of 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
While a Democrat has not carried the state since 1996, the poll indicates Biden leading with demographics the party considers key to making it competitive there. Biden leads Trump among the state’s Hispanic voters 65 percent to 27 percent in the poll.
Meanwhile, Biden leads among women by 18 points in the poll, while Trump leads among men by 2 points.
In Maricopa County, which comprises about 60 percent of the state’s population, Biden leads by the same as his statewide margin. Trump won the county by three points in 2016.
In another barrier to Trump repeating his 2016 performance in the state, support for third-party candidates is down by more than half compared to that year. More than 7 percent of Arizona voters voted third-party in 2016. However, in the Times survey, 3 percent of likely voters supported Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, while 1 percent simply said they supported “somebody else.”
The poll also indicates Trump has alienated some moderate Republicans in the state, to Biden’s advantage. It indicated 6 percent of Republicans intend to support Biden, compared to 3 percent of Democrats supporting Trump. Two prominent Arizona Republicans, former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Cindy McCain, the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) widow, have both endorsed the former vice president,
Pollsters surveyed 655 likely voters from Oct. 1-3. It has a 4.2-point margin of error.