Poll: Most voters unlikely to change support in key Senate races based on Kavanaugh proceedings

The fight surrounding Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination in recent months has made voters more motivated to vote next month in a handful of key Senate races, a new poll found, but those individuals are unlikely to change their vote based on his confirmation.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday surveyed voters in New Jersey, Texas, Arizona and Tennessee. In each state, more than 50 percent of registered voters surveyed said that they are more motivated to get out and vote as a result of the Kavanaugh proceedings.

However, the result of the process is unlikely to have much sway in who those voters support in November, pollsters found. The polling was conducted Oct. 2-5, meaning it concluded one day before Kavanaugh was confirmed.

{mosads}In New Jersey, 56 percent of those surveyed said their vote would not change if Kavanaugh were confirmed, while 63 percent said it wouldn’t change if Kavanaugh were rejected. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) holds a 49 to 39 percent lead over Republican challenger Bob Hugin in that race, according to the poll.

Among Texas voters, 55 percent said their vote would be unchanged if Kavanaugh were confirmed, and 63 percent said the same about Kavanaugh potentially being left off the Supreme Court. 

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) leads Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) in that race, 50 to 44 percent, mirroring most polling that has shown the incumbent with a steady lead.

In Tennessee, where Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) are vying to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R), 59 percent of voters said they would not change their vote had Kavanaugh been confirmed. Sixty-three percent of voters said they would not have altered their vote had the judge not been confirmed.

Blackburn has an 8-point lead over Bredesen, according to the poll, 50 to 42 percent.

In Arizona, 57 percent of voters said their vote would be the same if Kavanaugh were confirmed, and 58 percent said their vote would stay consistent even if the Senate rejected his nomination.

Rep. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) holds a 3-point edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the race for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), though the difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.

The margins of error in the CBS poll are 3.9 points in Texas, 3.6 in New Jersey, 3.5 in Arizona and 3.4 in Tennessee. Roughly 1,000 voters were surveyed in each state, except for New Jersey, which had 704 respondents.

The Senate confirmed Kavanaugh on Saturday afternoon in a 50-48 vote, with one GOP senator absent and another voting “present.” Every Democrat opposed Kavanaugh’s nomination except for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

The bitter fight over Kavanaugh’s confirmation came after multiple women accused the judge of sexual misconduct. Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford testified late last month over allegations that he sexually assaulted her during a party in the 1980s. 

A supplemental FBI background investigation found no corroboration of the claims, Republicans said, while Democrats argued that the review of the allegations was too brief and failed to interview key witnesses.