Poll: Heitkamp trails Cramer by 12 points in North Dakota

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) was 12 points behind challenger Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), according to a poll released Wednesday, the second survey in as many days showing her trailing by a double-digit margin.

A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of likely voters in North Dakota back Cramer, while 41 percent support Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection.

The poll showed Heitkamp’s support has fallen, given a Fox News poll conducted earlier in September had showed her trailing Cramer by 44 to 48 percent.

Still, independents favor Heitkamp over Cramer, 55-29, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

The poll also showed a large gender disparity. Men said they back Cramer by a 20 point margin, but support Cramer over Heitkamp more narrowly, or by 49-45.

Wednesday’s poll surveyed 704 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Wednesday’s was the second poll this week to show Heitkamp trailing by a wide margin. A Gray TV poll released Tuesday found Cramer leading Heitkamp by 10 points.

The polls come amid signs that Heitkamp’s vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh could prove critical to her reelection prospects.

Kavanaugh’s nomination has been roiled after he faced allegations of sexual misconduct from three separate women. He has strongly denied the accusations.

Heitkamp is considered a key swing vote in Kavanaugh’s confirmaton, along with Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.).

None of those lawmakers has indicated how they will vote.

Among likely voters in Wednesday’s poll, 17 percent said they would be more likely to support Heitkamp if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh, while 34 percent said they would be less likely to vote for her if she rejects the judge. 

The Gray TV poll on Tuesday had showed 60 percent of North Dakota voters supporting Kavanaugh.