President Biden is set to give his State of the Union address Thursday, at a critical time for his campaign as it fully turns to taking on former President Trump in the general election.
Biden will head to the Capitol just two days after Super Tuesday, when both he and Trump swept their respective primaries. Republican Nikki Haley dropped out of the race Wednesday, helping set up a clear 2020 rematch in November.
Here are five things to watch for during Thursday’s address.
Can he reassure voters?
Biden is faced with the challenge of reassuring voters Thursday that he is up for another four years in the job.
The president has been hit with polls for months showing Americans don’t approve of his job as president, and he is lagging slightly behind Trump, according to polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. He also is consistently hit with questions over his age and stamina, with special counsel Robert Hur’s report on his handling of classified documents that called him an “elderly man with a poor memory” fueling concerns.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found 65 percent of registered voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. A CBS News/YouGov poll found 33 percent of Americans would rate Biden’s presidency as excellent or good so far.
Biden will simultaneously need to sell voters on the accomplishments of his first term while pitching them on the idea of four more years under his leadership.
“The president has always been an optimistic person, as you know, and even in the face of challenges in front of us, he will share why he’s hopeful about this country’s future and why it is a mistake to bet against the American people,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday.
Can he make it through gaffe-free?
Just as important as what Biden will say Thursday is how he delivers it.
Polling has shown voters are concerned about Biden’s age, and any verbal miscues will come under a microscope. A New York Times/Siena College poll released last weekend found 73 percent of registered voters said they either strongly or somewhat agree that Biden is too old to be an effective president.
Recent stumbles — including mixing up Ukraine and Gaza and mistakenly referring to the leader of Egypt as the president of Mexico — received increased attention after a special counsel report called Biden’s memory into question.
Biden made it through last year’s State of the Union without any notable hiccups, and he even managed to create a memorable moment when he went off script and engaged with heckling Republicans about protecting Social Security and Medicare.
The president could use a similarly strong showing this time around as a way to reassure Democrats and other voters that he’s fully in control and capable of speaking with energy and precision about his agenda.
“The president has been … very honest about his age,” Jean-Pierre said Wednesday, adding later: “But this is also a president that has gotten done more in the last three years than most presidents have in their two terms of presidency, and that is what we’ve seen from the data. And a lot of that is because of his experience.”
Will he talk directly about Trump?
The State of the Union isn’t a campaign speech in the traditional sense, but this year’s event will serve as a launching pad for Biden’s reelection bid the day after Trump became the last candidate standing in the GOP primary.
The president may not mention Trump by name, but he could seek to draw direct contrasts between his administration and the previous administration on issues such as crime and the economy.
Biden has increasingly been addressing Trump directly ahead of an expected November rematch, though.
The president called on Trump directly to work with him to pass border security legislation during their dueling trips to Texas on Friday. Before that, he directly spoke about Trump to bash him for his comments that Russia can invade delinquent NATO countries.
Biden’s campaign has also been directly targeting Trump and lifting up his remarks as a way to demonize him. The anti-Trump operation is expected to get more intense, and the campaign will likely criticize and elevate everything that the former president says that they deem dangerous.
What will he say on Israel and Gaza?
The speech comes while Biden faces increasing backlash from fellow Democrats on his handling of the war in the Middle East. Progressives and activists have protested Biden for months for not calling for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, while the administration maintains that a temporary cease-fire to release hostages is essential but a permanent one would only help Hamas.
Democrats made their feelings of discontent known in a couple of states this primary season. More than 45,000 Democratic primary voters in Minnesota selected “uncommitted” on their primary ballots Tuesday, and more than 100,000 Democratic primary voters in Michigan cast ballots for “uncommitted” last week. Each secured nearly a dozen delegates in the process.
Meanwhile, Republicans are expected to bash Biden over any comments that don’t convey full support for Israel. Biden is expected to call on Congress to pass more funding for Israel amid the war, which has been an uphill battle with the aid tied to support for Ukraine and border security measures.
Biden and top officials have floated that a six-week cease-fire deal will be announced soon, which would involve Hamas releasing hostages and allow for more aid to get into Gaza. The president last week said negotiations could end as early as Monday, but that deadline passed. Jean-Pierre on Wednesday said he is “going to be optimistic” in his address about finalizing negotiations.
What else will get the most time?
The State of the Union is typically a way for the president to touch on key issues of the day, priorities for their party and personally important projects. But a couple areas are expected to stand out for Biden on Thursday.
Immigration is a hot-button issue, and the president will likely put the onus on Congress to pass a border security bill after Republicans rejected a bipartisan proposal out of the Senate that had the White House’s backing. Biden traveled to the border last week, and he is likely to use the bully pulpit Thursday to remind Americans what GOP lawmakers are opposing.
The war in Ukraine is also expected to get significant attention, just as it did last year. Biden has been adamant that it is in the United States’s interest to aid Ukraine so Russia doesn’t draw the world into a wider conflict. The Senate passed $60 billion in assistance for Ukraine last month, but Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has refused to bring it up for a vote in the House.
Otherwise, the speech is likely to serve as an opportunity for Biden to remind voters what he’s accomplished in his first three years, hitting on the bipartisan infrastructure law, a bipartisan investment in semiconductor manufacturing and Democratic legislation to incentivize clean energy investments and lower prescription drug costs.
“I think there are some places where he can draw some lines,” said Jim Kessler, a co-founder of left-leaning think tank Third Way. “The border deal. Talking about choice. The economy. This is mostly where he gets to make his positive case.”