5 factions that will decide Speaker Johnson’s fate

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) leadership faces a make-or-break moment this week when the House is expected to consider a Republican proposal to boot him from power — an extraordinary process highlighting the bad blood pulsing through the party in the era of Donald Trump. 

The resolution, championed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and two other hard-liners furious with Johnson’s bipartisan dealmaking, is likely to fail, ensuring the Speaker will keep hold of the gavel heading into November’s elections.

But the vote is expected to break down in highly unusual ways, splitting both parties along strange lines that will produce odd alliances between ideological foes and see some of Johnson’s most ardent critics rushing to ensure he remains in power.

Here are the five groups to watch as the House decides the Speaker’s fate.

GOP critics ready to boot him

Greene is marching into this week’s vote with an army of two — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) — a small force that is poised to flounder amid bipartisan opposition to the motion to vacate.

The trio has strongly criticized Johnson for his propensity to cut legislative deals with Democrats, an anger that cropped up after the Speaker spearheaded a sprawling funding package, came to a boil when he supported a bill to reauthorize the U.S.’s warrantless surveillance powers, and spilled over after he muscled through a foreign aid package that included billions of dollars for Ukraine.

Other hard-liners, to be sure, have expressed frustration with Johnson’s track record, but have stopped short of joining Greene’s effort. That, however, could change when the vote begins next week.

“I really don’t have a number yet,” Greene told reporters when asked how many Republicans will side with her. “But this is the recorded vote that America needs to see.”

But with the writing on the wall, proponents of the motion are trying to manage expectations, arguing that even if Johnson retains the gavel this time, the vote will show that he does not have a long-term future in the top job.

“I’ll go out on a limb and predict there’ll be enough votes to show that Mike Johnson can’t be elected Speaker in January,” Massie said. “Because although he can get Democrat votes on a motion to table, it’s not a motion to table vote in January 3, and hopefully when Mike Johnson sees that vote he’ll know that he’s a lame-duck Speaker.”

GOP critics who want him to stay

Frustration with Johnson is running high in the House GOP conference — especially among the right flank — but those feelings will not be fully reflected in this week’s vote. A large swath of conservatives say they will oppose the motion to vacate, despite their annoyance, to avoid chaos so close to the November elections.

Those hard-liners, many of whom are members of the House Freedom Caucus, want to maintain a united front — or as close to one that the conference can mount — in the lead-up to November to avoid the image of disarray and, in turn, convince voters that they deserve another two years in the majority.

“I don’t think there’s anything to be gained by having a motion to vacate the chair at this point in time,” Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said.

Another concern among the right flank is the question of who would replace Johnson if he loses the gavel. With no clear successor in mind, conservatives have said they do not want to install a second-tier candidate who would be the incumbent during leadership elections for the next Congress.

“I wouldn’t want to select someone now that would, in my view, probably [be] the less desirable, not the best option, perhaps, that would be an incumbent going into November,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chair of the Freedom Caucus who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

“I think we do the best we can with the Speaker that we have, influence him to the best of our ability, expose what we believe are wrong actions by not just the Speaker but everyone who is voting to support those actions, and have a contest to see who the conference can coalesce around as the best option in November,” he added.

GOP leadership allies who will back Johnson

The right’s anger toward Johnson has been matched by that of the Speaker’s allies toward the center. 

That more moderate group, made up of veteran lawmakers, committee chairs and, more generally, institutionalists who want the government to function smoothly, constitute a vast majority of the GOP conference. And they’ve lashed out at the hard-liners for much of the year, accusing them of ignoring the reality that no one gets everything they want in a divided Washington.

Those Republicans were up in arms with the rabble-rousing conservatives who toppled McCarthy in October. They’ve been furious as the hard-liners have adopted the unusual tactic of tanking procedural votes to stall legislation and advance their demands. And they’ve defended Johnson through his deal-making efforts with President Biden.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said there’s a simple reason Greene is having so much trouble finding GOP support for removing Johnson. 

“Because he’s doing a good job,” Lawler said. “We’ve gotten our appropriations bills done; we’ve gotten FISA through the House; we’ve gotten the supplemental aid package done. 

“For my colleagues that are upset about not getting border [security],” he added, “they should look in the mirror, because they weakened the Speaker’s hand to negotiate when they wouldn’t pass a rule.”

Such frustrations have escalated in recent days, as rank-and-file Republicans — particularly those, like Lawler, who face tough reelection contests — are warning against another messy Speaker fight so close to November. 

“Everyone realizes just how detrimental the motion-to-vacate process is, and I don’t think it’s a popular thing with our base, either,” Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said. 

“At this point, so close to an election season, we need to get some spending bills to the floor, start the appropriations process, do no harm, not shoot our quarterback in the head in the fourth quarter, and go win elections.”

Democrats shielding Johnson

The top three House Democrats — led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) — announced last week they would vote to table, or dismiss, Greene’s vacate resolution, all but ensuring that the ouster effort would fail. 

The move was unprecedented, and it marks a sharp contrast to the Democrats’ approach to McCarthy’s removal, which they supported unanimously. 

The strategy also gives political cover to those Democrats who had vowed, even months before Greene filed her vacate motion, to protect Johnson from a conservative coup if he brought a short but highly consequential list of legislative priorities to the floor, including bills to prevent a government shutdown and provide more aid to Ukraine.

Now that Johnson has helped usher those bills into law, many Democrats are ready to reward him for what they consider responsible governing. 

“They’re trying to boot him out because he did the right thing. And so we ought not to allow that to happen,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) said. 

It’s unclear how many Democrats will vote to protect Johnson. But Rep. Jim McGovern (Mass.), the senior Democrat on the powerful Rules Committee, predicted it would be “a big chunk” of the caucus. And leadership — while not whipping the vote, which they consider a matter of conscience — are also promoting a desire to stabilize the chamber and prevent Greene from dictating how it’s run.  

“She is a legislative arsonist,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), chair of the Democratic caucus. “And she is holding the gas tank.”

Democrats opposing Johnson

Despite the announcement from top Democrats that they will vote to table Greene’s resolution, some liberals may stray from the pack and oppose the procedural vote to send a message that, in their eyes, Johnson is not a suitable leader for the Congress and the country. 

Before taking the gavel, the Louisiana Republican had racked up one of the most conservative track records on Capitol Hill. And his positions on abortion, gay rights and the role of religion in government have made him toxic in the eyes of liberals, who don’t want to go on record endorsing his leadership.

Johnson, a former constitutional lawyer, also alienated Democrats because he was the architect of the legal reasoning behind the Republican effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and keep Trump in power — an effort that led to the violent rampage at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

With Johnson’s fate hanging in the balance, those postures are top of mind for Democrats.

“I may vote against it to send the message that Mike Johnson is still a dangerous leader,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said.

The progressive New Yorker said the Democratic strategy could be two-pronged: provide enough votes to table the resolution, but then let other liberals oppose the gambit to showcase their displeasure with the Speaker.

“The ‘yes’ votes provide the functional purpose of what we need,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “The ‘no’ votes allow us to maintain and uphold the message that Mike Johnson is still a dangerous leader who seeks to strip abortion rights … and who also supported overturning the election and setting the stage for Jan. 6.”

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) offered a similar assessment.

“He’s dangerous, he’s an election denier, he’s a fundamentalist, and he’s not the leadership this country needs,” Bowman said. “Hopefully by November, if everyone comes out to vote, we’ll be able to recalibrate Congress and begin moving in the right direction for the American people.”