Which candidates will be helped and hurt by the bitter weather for the Iowa caucuses?

DES MOINES — Iowa looks set for the coldest caucus day on record Monday. It’s a factor that could have a real political impact.

The problem is, no one can agree quite what the effect will be — except for curbing turnout in general.

The weather has led all the major candidates to cancel some events. 

It also postponed the arrival of former President Trump in the state until Saturday evening. Trump canceled events in Sioux City and Atlantic on Saturday, though he is still scheduled to speak at an Indianola rally Sunday.

Arriving in Des Moines, Trump bragged of “a lot of tremendous support” but also added, “It’s nasty out there.”

Jeff Kaufmann, the chair of the Iowa Republican Party, told The Hill that he expected some drop-off in caucus turnout from 2016, the last time the GOP had a contested nomination race.

But, Kaufmann contended, “The atmosphere still feels passionate — especially when you’re inside not feeling the windchill.”

Kaufmann noted that there are 1,567 caucus sites across the state, “so there are going to be thousands of Iowans with less than five miles to travel.”

The final Des Moines Register poll, long seen as the gold standard in the state, was released Saturday evening. It put Trump at 48 percent support, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 20 percent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16 percent and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8 percent.

Here are five theories circulating here in the Hawkeye State as to whom the weather could help or hurt. 

Nobody will know until Monday night which theory proves correct.

It will help Trump because of the passion of his supporters

A sign supporting former President Donald Trump’s bid for the Republican party’s nomination for president sits along Interstate 80 in central Iowa on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. (Nick Rohlman /The Gazette via AP)

Bad weather in any election aids the candidate who has the most fiercely loyal supporters.

That looks to be Trump, whose MAGA base has seen him through two impeachments, four indictments and too many controversies to count. 

Despite it all, he leads national polls for the GOP nomination by more than 50 points — even as Democrats and some independents consider him a real danger to American democracy.

The intensity of support for Trump can be seen in other data too. 

An Economist/YouGov poll released Jan. 8 asked voters how they would feel if each of the major GOP candidates became the nominee.

Sixty-one percent of Republicans said they would be “enthusiastic” about Trump being their standard-bearer. That figure was far higher than that of his rivals.

The next best performing choice was DeSantis, but just 20 percent of Republicans said they would be “enthusiastic” about the Florida governor being the nominee. Forty percent said they would be “satisfied but not enthusiastic.”

The fire in the belly of Trump’s supporters might be enough to keep the cold at bay.

It will hurt Trump because his polling lead will make his supporters complacent

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump participates in a virtual rally at Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

As always with Trump, there are two sides to the story.

It’s true that his MAGA base is devoted to him. But there are surely some softer supporters too — backers who have enabled him to leap out to a 35-point lead in the Hawkeye State, according to the average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ.

Will those less intense fans turn out Monday, when the temperature in Iowa is forecast to range between a low of -19 degrees and a high of -1 degrees?

It seems at least plausible that some of them will stay at home, especially in rural areas, if they think Trump’s victory is a foregone conclusion.

Perhaps mindful of this possibility, Trump aides have begun to scale back expectations for a landslide victory.

“A win’s a win,” Trump senior adviser Jason Miller told NewsNation reporter Kellie Meyer on Saturday.

It will hurt Haley because her supporters are less hardcore

A sign supporting Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is pictured, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

The final Des Moines Register poll was solid for Haley since it pointed towards her securing second place, which is her real objective here.

But the Register poll also flashed big warning signs in the snow for the former U.N. ambassador.

Most glaringly of all, just 9 percent of her supporters said they were “extremely enthusiastic” about her candidacy — much lower than the supporters of either Trump or DeSantis. 

“There is underlying weakness here,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told NBC News. “If turnout is low, it seems to me that a disproportionate share of her supporters might stay at home.”  

On top of that, roughly half of Haley’s support was drawn from independents or Democrats who intend to participate in the GOP caucuses. There has to also be a question mark over whether those people show up in adverse conditions.

Haley has not done quite so many campaign trail events as DeSantis in the final days, and her crowds have sometimes felt not quite so energized.

All in all, Haley could be the one candidate most at risk in the grim conditions.

“Rain or shine — or snow! We’ve got a country to save,” she wrote Saturday on social media, urging her supporters to attend the caucuses.

It will help DeSantis because of his ground game

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis departs after speaking at a Northside Conservatives Club Meeting at The District in Ankeny, Iowa, Jan. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Supporters of DeSantis insist that he is going to do far better than the pollsters and pundits think.

Steve Deace, a conservative radio talk show host based in the state, has endorsed DeSantis and spoke at an event with the candidate in West Des Moines on Saturday. 

Deace discerned “incredible energy” around DeSantis, which he insisted was incompatible with the Florida governor’s modest standing in polls.

Another key DeSantis backer, evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, told The Hill at an event in Ames, Iowa, on Thursday evening that the DeSantis organization could make all the difference.

“This has always been a turnout game and it always will be,” Vander Plaats said.

And, at the West Des Moines event, the biggest endorser snagged by DeSantis, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), encouraged audience members to “layer up and get to the caucus” Monday.

Never Back Down, the main super PAC supporting DeSantis, has been rife with infighting for much of the campaign. But it also claims to have knocked on the doors of about half of all the households in Iowa — a potential difference-maker, if it’s true.

Team DeSantis is also reportedly already well advanced in plans for how to transport supporters to caucus locations Monday.

If DeSantis does exceed expectations, look to the weather — and his organization — as the big reasons.

It will help Ramaswamy because his supporters tend to be younger

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, left, leaves his commit to caucus event on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024, at the National Czech and Slovak Museum & Library in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (Geoff Stellfox /The Gazette via AP)

Ramaswamy, at 8 percent in the Des Moines Register poll, is not a huge factor.

But the widespread assumption that he garners most of his support from younger people could help him. 

Firstly, younger caucusgoers might have less trepidation about braving the weather. Secondly, they are more likely to live in urban or suburban areas where the distance to caucus locations tends to be shorter.

Ramaswamy’s name does come up, in relatively favorable terms, even among audience members at other candidates’ events. And a blast of criticism aimed his way by Team Trump in the final days suggests they might be at least slightly concerned that he could eat into the former president’s vote.

There is a flip side, though. Some skeptics wonder if the entrepreneur’s young supporters are more comfortable at their keyboards than at a freezing caucus site. If that’s true, even his low level of support in polls could prove illusory.