The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Biden plays it safe with campaign stops

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.* 

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

TALK OF THE MORNING 

Why is Joe Biden going to a blue state in the final days of the campaign, you ask?: 

President Biden is traveling to New Mexico and California on Thursday in the final stretch before the midterms.

Which is right near major Senate battlegrounds: Arizona and Nevada 

So, why is that?: “Some strategists pointed to Biden seemingly avoiding states where he — and Democratic candidates — fear he’ll do more harm than good.” 

How Democratic campaigns view a Biden appearance, via The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Brett Samuels 

WATCH BIDEN LIVE:

Biden will be discussing student debt relief at an event in Albuquerque, N.M., at 3:45 p.m. EDT on Thursday. Livestream 

And Biden will be campaigning with New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) at 5:45 p.m. EDT. Livestream

It’s Thursday — T minus five days until the midterms! I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

📊 News this morning

A new poll has Dr. Oz topping John Fetterman: 

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is narrowly leading his Democratic opponent, John Fetterman, after last week’s debate, according to a new poll from Emerson College and The Hill. 

The numbers: Oz leads Fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll’s margin for error is 3 points, so it’s extremely close. 

More from the poll 

THIS IS RISKY BUSINESS:

Former President Trump will appear with Oz in a rally on Sunday. 

Why this is risky: “Oz has distanced himself from Trump’s claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election and has tried to project a moderate image in his race against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), a stark contrast with gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano (R), an election denier who will also share the state with Trump Saturday.”  

How this could alter the risk in the final days before the election, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

🗳 On the campaign trail

Plot twist in Arizona:

Arizona’s GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters got a big boost this week when a third-party candidate, Libertarian Marc Victor dropped out.  

Why this is big: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has been considered the favorite to win reelection, but now the race is much closer. 

How the Libertarian candidate was polling: Around 2.7 percent to 6 percent in recent polls. That’s a big chunk of voters who would potentially shift their support to the GOP nominee.  

Smaller plot twist to the plot twist: “Victor’s name, however, will remain on the ballot, meaning that he will still be a visible option for voters. And, as of Wednesday morning, more than 1 million voters have already returned their ballots since early voting began on Oct. 12.”  

How this race could play out based on similar scenarios, via The Hill’s Al Weaver 

EVERYONE WANTS TO BE THE SQUEAKY WHEEL:

In an interview with The Daily Mail’s Rob Crilly, Arizona’s Republican Senate nominee, Blake Masters, suggested that he would be “a thorn in the side” of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) if he is elected. 

In Masters’ words: “I’m not going to try to make his life miserable for the sake of it. But I’m going to be happy to be independent.”  

Masters praised Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for her style of legislating 

Ted Cruz is asking Trump — Where’s the dough??:

“Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is calling out former President Donald Trump for not spending more of his $100 million war chest to boost Republican Senate candidates ahead of next week’s midterm elections.”  

Cruz is also critical of McConnell: “Cruz also accused Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) of withholding critical political dollars from ‘pro-Trump’ candidates, while funneling money into races where ‘moderates’ and Trump critics are running.”  

Cruz’s full comments on his podcast, ‘Verdict with Ted Cruz’ 

‘THE CHAOS ELECTION: THE 2022 ELECTION IS ACTUALLY ABOUT 2024’:

Read the op-ed

🦠 Latest with COVID 

Anthony Fauci rn:

If Republicans win control of the House in November, investigating the origins and response to COVID-19 is at the top of their to-do list. 

Specifically: “Republicans are frustrated with what they see as the administration’s unaccountable coronavirus spending and are looking to shine a spotlight onto where the trillions of dollars doled out by the White House has gone.”  

What to expect, via The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel 

WHAT ELSE TO EXPECT IF GOP WIN CONGRESSIONAL MAJORITIES: 

Via The Washington Post’s Liz Goodwin 

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS

Cases to date: 97.3 million 

Death toll: 1,066,351 

Current hospitalizations: 20,938 

Shots administered: 636 million 

Fully vaccinated: 68.4 percent of Americans 

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets 

Incredible. Chef’s kiss.:

FiveThirtyEight’s Kaleigh Rogers tweeted, “I don’t know if you all remember the ‘I Voted’ sticker design contest for Ulster County that went viral and the internet all voted for this design but…it really did win, and they are using it for the current election.” Photo of the winning sticker design

It’s tiiiiime:

@PenguinSix tweeted that “Workers have installed the first string of lights on the National Christmas Tree today.” Photo

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Albuquerque, N.M., and San Diego on Thursday. Vice President Harris is in New York, N.Y.

• 9 a.m.: Biden received his daily intelligence briefing. 
• 10:30 a.m.: Biden left for Albuquerque. 
• 3:10 p.m.: Harris leaves for New York City. 
• 5:45 p.m.: Biden participates in a rally for the Democratic Party. 
• 5:50 p.m.: Harris speaks at a campaign event for Governor Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) at Barnard College. 
• 6:55 p.m.: Biden leaves for San Diego. 
• 7 p.m.: Harris flies back to D.C. 
• 9:30 p.m.: Biden campaigns for congressional candidate Mike Levin in San Diego. 

All times Eastern.

📺What to watch 

• 1 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gaggles with reporters aboard Air Force One. Livestream 
• 3:45 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on student debt relief. Livestream

🥪 In lighter news 

Today is National Sandwich Day! Axios is doing us a solid with a list of where to get sandwich deals on Thursday.

Thanksgiving is only a few weeks away!: 

The New York Times’s Genevieve Ko writes, “These 6 Thanksgiving dishes only get better with time.”

The dishes: “Prepare mashed potatoes, gravy, cranberry sauce and more holiday favorites in advance for dishes with the best texture and flavor.” The full read 

And to keep your day going strong, please watch this dog try to conquer the stairs.