The Hill’s 12:30 Report — New polling recalibrates midterm outlook

by Cate Martel - 08/22/22 12:30 PM ET

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

NEWS THIS MORNING

Anthony Fauci rides off into the sunset:

Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, announced on Monday morning that he will step down from his position in December.

Plus: He will step down as the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Is he retiring?: Fauci says he is not retiring.

From Fauci’s statement: “While I am moving on from my current positions, I am not retiring. After more than 50 years of government service, I plan to pursue the next phase of my career while I still have so much energy and passion for my field. I want to use what I have learned as NIAID Director to continue to advance science and public health and to inspire and mentor the next generation of scientific leaders as they help prepare the world to face future infectious disease threats.”

It’s Monday. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

📊 Getting traction

This is a poll you will likely keep hearing about:

NBC News released a new poll of Americans’ feelings toward the U.S. ahead of the midterms — and the results are fascinating.

For example, voters polled think “threats to democracy” is the biggest issue facing the country, even more so than inflation and the economy.

POLL HIGHLIGHTS:

This is raising eyebrows: Americans polled said that “threats to democracy” is the No. 1 issue in the country, even more so than “cost of living.” “Jobs and the economy” was ranked as the third-most issue facing the U.S.

Democrats’ tax, climate and health care bill is popular: 42 percent of respondents think the recently passed reconciliation bill is a good idea; 31 percent say it’s a bad idea.

The direction the country is headed: 74 percent of voters polled think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Are we in a recession?: 68 percent of voters think so.

When was the poll conducted?: After former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home was raided by the FBI.

Here’s the actual poll

🗳 On the campaign trail

The glass is moving from mostly empty to half full:

Via The Hill’s Max Greenwood, “Democrats are growing increasingly optimistic about their chances of holding the Senate this year amid a spate of favorable public polling and signs that some of the GOP’s top candidates are struggling to get their campaigns off the ground.”

What changed for Democrats?: “The party’s Senate nominees have emerged as formidable campaigners, and many have a solid cash advantage. Party officials are also hoping that recent accomplishments in Washington — most notably the passage of a sweeping tax and climate law — might help energize their base voters ahead of November.”

What changed for Republicans?: “Republicans, meanwhile, have nominated a series of first-time candidates – all of whom were endorsed by former President Trump in their primaries – who have struggled to turn their races into referendums on Democratic control of Washington, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had hoped, and failed so far to keep pace with their Democratic rivals in fundraising.”

How the tides are shifting a bit

INTERESTING ANALYSIS — A LOOK INTO TRUMP’S 220 ENDORSEMENTS:
“[A] New York Times analysis shows [former President Trump’s] endorsements fall into two major categories: election deniers who have openly spread the lie that he won in 2020, and incumbents whose likely victories — in some cases uncontested — help sensationalize his power inside the party.”

^ But neither of those categories help Republicans win control of Congress” “Meanwhile, a much smaller percentage of Mr. Trump’s endorsements have been aimed at Democratic seats that would help Republicans win back the majorities in the House and Senate that his party lost while he was in the White House.”

The interactive story from The New York Times’s Michael C. Bender, Rebecca Lieberman, Eden Weingart, Alyce McFadden and Nick Corasaniti

‘MIDTERM ELECTIONS TO PUT MISINFORMATION POLICIES TO THE TEST’:
Via The Hill’s Rebecca Klar

‘THE MAR-A-LAGO RAID GAVE REPUBLICANS AN UNEXPECTED SECOND WIND’:
Read the op-ed

📱 For Apple users

If you have an iPhone or iPad, do the latest security update ASAP:

Security experts and Apple are encouraging users to quickly perform the latest update to protect against hackers taking total control of Apple devices.

How to protect yourself: Go to “settings,” “general,” then “software update.”

The Associated Press answered the question everyone is wondering — ‘does this mean Apple isn’t doing a good job protecting its users?’: “No. The reality is that hackers are constantly looking for ways to gain unauthorized access to phones, tablets, computers, and other internet-connected devices for a wide range of malicious and illegal purposes.”

Which Apple devices could be affected?: Most iPhones, iPads and some laptops. Here’s the list of specific Apple products affected

More on the update and the Apple vulnerability, via The Associated Press’s Mae Anderson and Michael Liedtke

🍊 In Mar-a-Lago

The judge gives the FBI’s evidence his stamp of approval:

Via Politico’s Kyle Cheney, “The federal magistrate judge who authorized the warrant to search Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate emphasized Monday that he ‘carefully reviewed’ the FBI’s sworn evidence before signing off and considers the facts contained in an accompanying affidavit to be ‘reliable.’”

Will the judge release the affidavit?: “I cannot say at this point that partial redactions will be so extensive that they will result in a meaningless disclosure, but I may ultimately reach that conclusion after hearing further from the Government,” Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart wrote. What we know

🦠 Latest with COVID

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS

Cases to date: 93.2 million

Death toll: 1,034,668

Current hospitalizations: 34,083

Shots administered: 607 million

Fully vaccinated: 67.4 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets

I challenge you not to smile looking at this photo:

@haysjr_9 tweeted a photo showing “dogs waiting to enter children’s hospital rooms for animal therapy.” Photo — it has more than 60,000 likes so far.

Well, this will live in my dreams …er, nightmares tonight:

NASA Exoplanets tweeted, “The misconception that there is no sound in space originates because most space is a ~vacuum, providing no way for sound waves to travel. A galaxy cluster has so much gas that we’ve picked up actual sound. Here it’s amplified, and mixed with other data, to hear a black hole!” Listen to the audio — it has 7.2 million views so far.

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Rehoboth Beach, Del.

Vice President Harris has no public events scheduled.
Wednesday: Biden and first lady Jill Biden return to the White House.

📺What to watch

2 p.m.: State Department spokesperson Ned Price holds a press briefing. Livestream

All times Eastern.

🥧 In lighter news

Today is National Pecan Torte Day.

Oooh, she’s pretty:

The New York Times’s Priya Krishna writes, “She’s tall and svelte, with a sleek conical hat. She frequents New York City’s most coveted restaurant tables. She lights up a room. Perhaps you’ve seen her? She’s a lamp. The Pina Pro cordless lamp from the Italian design company Zafferano, to be exact. And she’s everywhere.”

The full story of ‘the lamp that’s taking over New York’ — plus photos

And to brighten your Monday, here’s a dog who excels at braving the elements.