Big Data Poll director: 2020 election will be decided in the Rust Belt

Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, predicted on Tuesday that the 2020 presidential election will be decided in the Rust Belt. 

Baris told Hill.TV’s “Rising” that the “close race” would likely be decided by voters from the states that extend from New York through the Midwest, areas that have experienced deindustrialization in recent years.

“In the end, I think that’s the region of the country that will decide the next president,” he said. 

Baris said that President Trump had been doing slightly better in the area in 2016 and that he “still has work to do” to make up a polling gap with Democratic nominee Joe Biden. 

Baris said that “there’s a lot of evidence to suggest” that voter expectation polls are “more predictive” than voter intention polls, adding Big Data Poll found many areas expect an extension of the Trump presidency. 

“Everywhere we’ve polled in the Rust Belt, nationally, in Florida, New Hampshire, voters expect Donald Trump to win,” he said. “So it is possible we’re all missing something. But this time around there’s no doubt he’s a vulnerable incumbent president.”