Trump leads Biden by 2 points in Pennsylvania survey

Former President Trump is leading President Biden by 2 points in a hypothetical race among Pennsylvania voters, according to a new poll.

The Marist Poll survey, released Wednesday, found Trump received 47 percent support to President Biden’s 45 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy garnered only 3 percent, while 2 percent said they were still undecided.

The 2-point lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump edges Biden by a similar margin among independent voters in the Keystone State, with 42 percent supporting the presumptive GOP nominee, 40 percent supporting Biden and 8 percent supporting Kennedy, per the survey.

Pennsylvania, which Biden narrowly won in 2020, will be a critical battleground state for the candidates to secure their victory in the November rematch.

The poll also notes the incumbent’s drop in support among Black voters, although he is still leading Trump by a significant margin — 68 percent to 23 percent. In 2020, however, Black voters in the state overwhelming voted for Biden over the former president, 92 percent to 7 percent.

Biden similarly lost support among voters younger than 45 — a group he won in 2020 by 24 percentage points. Now, he leads by 2 points, 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent.

At the same time, the former president won voters 45 and older by 12 percentage points in 2020. In this poll, however, he leads by just 3 points, 48 percent to Biden’s 45 percent.

“Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, in a statement.

“Although Obama carried Pennsylvania handily in 2008 and 2012, Trump broke the “blue wall” in 2016 against Clinton before Biden ‘held serve’ for the Democrats in 2020. Now, there are no guarantees for either candidate,” Miringoff added.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average echoes the Pennsylvania poll, with Biden trailing Trump by 2 points — 41.8 percent to 39.8 percent — and Kennedy bringing in 8 percent of the vote. The polling index in Pennsylvania has the incumbent and former president virtually tied with Trump at 41.6 percent, Biden at 41.3 percent and Kennedy at 8.1 percent.

The Marist Poll survey, conducted from June 3-6, included 1,181 registered voters in Pennsylvania and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.