Story at a glance
- Voters in nine battleground states agree that the right to same-sex marriage should be protected by federal law, according to polling data from TargetPoint shared exclusively with Changing America.
- Most voters in states including Wisconsin say they are more likely to vote for a senate candidate that supports the Respect for Marriage Act.
- The poll’s findings are consistent with other surveys that have found support for marriage equality among American voters is at an all-time high.
Senators that don’t support the Respect for Marriage Act or are undecided on the bill could find themselves in a tough spot come November, with voters in key battleground states more likely to support candidates that have backed the measure to codify same-sex and interracial marriage.
Majorities of voters in nine states — Alaska, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Wyoming — believe same-sex marriage should be legally valid and protected under the law, according to new polling data shared exclusively with Changing America.
Interviews with thousands of registered voters were conducted in August by TargetPoint, a consulting firm that has worked closely with campaigns for GOP leaders including former President George W. Bush and Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.).
More than half of all voters in each target state believe same-sex marriage should be recognized as valid, according to the TargetPoint poll, and large majorities of voters agree that nationwide marriage equality should remain in place, including more than 70 percent of voters in Utah and Wisconsin.
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The findings are consistent with recent polling from Gallup that found support for same-sex marriage has ticked up to an all-time high among American adults. A July Politico and Morning Consult poll similarly found that nearly 60 percent of Americans believe marriage equality should be enshrined in federal law.
The Respect for Marriage Act, introduced by House lawmakers in June following a Supreme Court opinion that suggested landmark cases including Obergefell v. Hodges should be revisited, would address a national patchwork of marriage laws by requiring each state to legally recognize same-sex and interracial marriages.
Statutes or constitutional amendments that prohibit same-sex marriage remain in place in 35 states but are unenforceable as long as the court’s Obergefell ruling, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, stays intact.
Republicans in Congress have said there’s little chance of Obergefell being overturned, but some have also insisted that the case was wrongly decided when it went before the Supreme Court in 2015, arguing that states should be able to decide their own marriage laws.
After the conservative court in June rolled back federal abortion protections by striking down Roe v. Wade — reversing nearly 50 years of precedent — same-sex couples and their allies began to worry that LGBTQ+ rights could be next on the chopping block.
It’s not currently clear whether the Respect for Marriage Act will have enough support among Republicans in the Senate when it comes to a vote after the November elections, but most voters in the TargetPoint poll said they would be more likely to vote for a senator that has expressed public support for the measure.
That could be enough to push some undecided Senate Republicans facing tough elections over the edge, John Feehery, a GOP political strategist, told Changing America. Others that have voiced opposition to the bill may reconsider their position.
“A lot of senators in this cycle are very risk averse,” Feehery said. “They don’t want to take votes that make their life complicated when they face voters.”
Still, support for the Respect for Marriage Act isn’t unanimous, and voters in several key states are largely split on whether they want their elected representatives to back the bill, according to the TargetPoint poll.
More than 40 percent of voters in Wisconsin, for instance, said they would be more likely to support a Senate candidate that backs the measure, but a large share (35 percent) also said their decision-making at the polls isn’t likely to be influenced by how a candidate plans to vote on the bill.
Another 22 percent said they would be less likely to vote for a senator that supports the legislation.
“That could explain why Ron Johnson was kind of all over the place,” Feehery said. The second-term Wisconsin senator in July said he had “no reason to oppose” the measure, but abruptly flipped his position early last month, telling reporters that he would not support the bill “in its current state.”
Johnson, considered one of the most at-risk GOP senators this cycle, is locked in a close race with his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Recent polls have shown Johnson with a slight lead.
Feehery said other Republicans running in states with large Catholic populations may face a difficult decision when it comes to backing the bill, which has been criticized by some for lacking adequate religious liberty protections.
But according to the TargetPoint poll, a majority of Republican voters in battleground states agree that while people of faith may disagree on same-sex marriage, religious and personal freedoms will remain protected under existing legislation should the Respect for Marriage Act pass.
Dozens of religious organizations last month urged senators to pass the bill, writing in a letter to Congress that the right to marry is “a matter of human dignity.”
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