New poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa

Support among Iowa democratic voters for Democratic presidential candidate and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) spiked in a new poll released Saturday, with Buttigieg leading the crowded field of Democratic hopefuls. 

Among “likely” Democratic voters in the Iowa caucus, 25 percent now say that Buttigieg is their first choice for president, a 16 percent boost since September, according to the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll. This is the first time in the poll that Buttigieg leads Biden, as well as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass).

“This is the first poll that shows Buttigieg as a stand-alone front-runner,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the organization that conducted the poll, told the Des Moines Register. “There have been four candidates that have sort of jostled around in a pack together, but he has a sizable lead over the nearest contender — 9 points. So this is a new status for him.” 

{mosads} In the former polls, Warren was the frontrunner among Democratic Iowa voters, garnering 22 percent support in September. In the poll released Saturday, her support slipped to 16 percent. Biden and Sanders are both polling at 15 percent, although Biden slipped 5 points since the last poll, and Sanders’ support increased 4 points.

Explaining the recent polling surge, Buttigieg said he began to connect with Iowa voters on a new level after Labor Day. 

Pete Buttigieg responds to new Iowa poll showing him in first place: “Starting with Labor Day, I felt a level of energy at the steak fry that told us that we had a chance to really connect.” pic.twitter.com/Gepa9tMwHk

— The Hill (@thehill) November 17, 2019

Meanwhile, other Democratic candidates like Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) received 6 percent support from poll respondents, with Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and businessmen Tom Steyer (D) and Andrew Yang (D) all polling at 3 percent. 

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D), who has filed to appear in the Alabama and Arkansas primaries, but not the crucial New Hampshire primary, polled at 2 percent, while Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) polled at one percent. All of the other candidates in the Democratic field round to 0 percent.

The poll also revealed that 30 percent of respondents say that they have a first choice for the Democratic nominee and that their minds are made up, compared with 20 percent in September. The majority of Democratic voters, 62 percent, said they have a first choice, but they could be persuaded. 

When asked about the Democratic candidates’ chances against President Trump, 63 percent of respondents said it was more important to nominate a candidate who has a strong chance of beating the president rather than a candidate who supports their personal policy positions. Thirty-two percent of Democratic voters disagreed.

Still, those polled were not certain that any of the four frontrunners could defeat the president heading into 2020. Thirty-one percent saying they are “almost certain” that Sanders would lose, compared to 24 percent for Warren, 21 percent for Biden and 19 percent Buttigieg. 

A quarter of those polled said they are “almost certain” Biden will defeat Trump in 2020, compared to 17 percent for Sanders, 16 percent for Buttigieg and 15 percent for Warren.a

The poll was conducted Nov. 8-13 among 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percengage points.