The establishment fights back

For the past two cycles, Republicans let winnable races with flawed candidates torpedo their chances at a Senate majority.
But than was then, and this is now.

The GOP establishment is no longer afraid to rattle Tea Party groups, and the intraparty battle is expected to intensify in the coming weeks and months.

{mosads}The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) this weekend went after radiologist Milton Wolf, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts’s GOP primary challenger. Wolf had once posted grisly images of gunshot victims on his Facebook page with macabre comments. The NRSC pounced, seemingly giddy to dance on his proverbial political grave.

Wolf apologized but later said the gravity of the situations he saw as a physician “takes its toll.” In a rare on-the-record offering to journalists, the NRSC said the primary challenger’s “strange explanation meanders between irrational and outright absurd” and “raises serious questions about his character, judgment, honesty and stability. “

The war of words between the Senate campaign arm and challengers to incumbents has risen to a new level in 2014. So far this cycle, the NRSC press shop on Twitter has promoted negative stories showing Republicans who are challenging incumbents as floundering.

The NRSC may not be the only one to antagonize Tea Party candidates. American Crossroads’ Conservative Victory Project is designed to weed out weak challengers and protect strong candidates. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has already spent in House special elections and could get involved in other races.

Other Tea Party challengers have had similar but not as damaging, missteps, or have simply failed to catch fire. In Kentucky, Matt Bevin has struggled against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). While conservatives want to upset Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), no strong challenger has emerged yet. Mississippi might be the right’s best shot, where state Sen. Chris McDaniel is taking on Sen. Thad Cochran (R). Still, McDaniel has also had to fend off reports about his past.

In recent years, the NRSC especially has been reticent to even show the slightest hint of engaging in primaries. The committee was burned in 2010, after it hitched its wagon to then-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist in the open Florida Senate primary. The decision backfired, as Marco Rubio rose as the conservative choice, and Crist eventually left the GOP for a failed run as an independent. He is now a Democrat running for governor again.

Swept up in the Tea Party wave, the committee took a more hands-off approach after backlash from backing Crist. But its decision helped other problematic candidates emerge, such as Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Sharron Angle in Nevada.

In Delaware, GOP Rep. Mike Castle, the favorite to win the primary and flip the seat, had damaging opposition research on O’Donnell. But it was used too late, and Castle lost the primary.

Years later, GOP observers say the early moves by Republican establishment groups signal they wouldn’t make the same missteps again.

“If a candidate is fatally flawed, make sure and get that information out from the beginning to make sure we don’t have another Christine O’Donnell type candidacy,” said one establishment GOP strategist. “The main lesson for the whole movement is that, if a candidate is unvetted, even in a red state, we can still lose if the other team puts up their best candidate.”

National Republicans know Democrats won’t hesitate to attack their more promising candidates with the same brush as another off-message or tarnished candidate.

When Rep. Todd Akin (R) scuttled his chances in Missouri last cycle, Democrats rushed to tie every GOP candidate to the castigated candidate.

If not for Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment, Richard Mourdock (R) in Indiana probably wouldn’t have even been asked about his position on abortion in a debate, but Mourdock’s response killed his general election chances after topping Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.). The results: Republicans lost two winnable races in Missouri and Indiana.

Under new management, the NRSC defends its right to get involved as it sees fit. NRSC officials say it’s not a question of ideology but candidate quality. They stress it’s their role to do one thing in 2014: win the majority.

“It’s a question of whether candidates are good candidates or bad candidates,” said NRSC communications director Brad Dayspring.

“If Dr. Wolf thinks this is aggressive, wait until he meets my friends at the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee].”

Practically speaking in 2014, Kansas isn’t in danger of falling into Democratic hands, even if Wolf were to topple Roberts. Of course, that would be a bit awkward for the NRSC after how it has gone after him.

Dayspring said “all available data suggests that is a pretty far-fetched scenario, particularly in light of this  weekend’s disturbing news. Dr. Wolf has a lot of problems.”

The salvos this week were seen by outside groups backing Wolf and other anti-establishment candidates as clear shots against conservatives, opening a new chapter in the GOP civil war.

“When their candidates come under fire, they circle the wagons. When conservatives come under fire, they pile on,” Senate Conservatives Fund Executive Director Matt Hoskins, whose group is backing Wolf, told The Hill.

“The NRSC is hitting the panic button earlier than in other cycles,” Hoskins continued. “It will probably only anger the grassroots and motivate them to work harder.”

The best test of whether Republicans are really ready to rile conservatives at any cost to save a seat might come in Georgia.

Worried about GOP candidates in the Peach State who could be a nightmare in the general election, none of the major conservative groups have weighed in. But if they do, don’t be surprised if national groups or even party committees get engaged to save retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss’s seat from a strong Democratic candidate in Michelle Nunn.

The NRSC has said previously it doesn’t have plans to engage there, but it reserves “the right to do whatever is necessary to win.”

As GOP establishment operatives have learned all too well from recent history, the risks of not engaging can outweigh the predictable blowback from Tea Party groups.