The Federal Reserve said Thursday that banks are well capitalized enough to endure a severe recession but stand to lose $541 billion if the economy heads south.
The findings came from the Fed’s annual stress test of the banking sector, which is based on major hypothetical declines in economic conditions, including a 40-percent drop in real estate prices and widespread office vacancies.
“The $541 billion in total projected losses includes over $100 billion in losses from commercial real estate and residential mortgages,” Fed officials found, noting the loss would represent a 2.3-percentage point decline in total capital.
Bank of America would lose $54 billion, Capital One would lose $46 billion, and JPMorgan Chase would lose $72.9 billion. Altogether, the top 23 banks would lose more than $424 billion in loans, the Fed said.
Fed regulators failed to spot a major bank run earlier this year when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went under from basic interest rate exposure risk, drawing ire from lawmakers in both parties.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) called out “regulators’ lack of basic supervision and enforcement of safety and soundness rules, regulations, and principles.”
McHenry and Senate Banking Committee ranking Republican Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) said the situation suffered from “glaring mismanagement.”
Top House Financial Services Democrat Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) said in March that “Silicon Valley Bank collapsed because of management failures and possible regulatory weaknesses.”
Fed regulators also blamed themselves, perceiving a “shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behavior that changed how supervision was executed.”
However much banks would lose in the event of a serious economic downturn, regular Americans stand to lose a lot more.
The Fed’s hard-landing projections put the unemployment rate rise to 10 percent, which would mean about 10 million more people out of work. Current employment levels are still near record highs, with 3.7 percent of the total U.S. workforce currently looking for a job.
Under the stress test conditions, disposable incomes fall into “the trough experienced in the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis.”