Recession chances have jumped, JPMorgan strategists say

JPMorgan Chase strategists warned clients on Monday that recession chances have increased amid the recent banking crises.

Even as the Federal Reserve is set to make a key decision on whether to continue to raise interest rates on Wednesday, the strategists suggested that it may not be able to avert a recession, Fortune reported. 

“The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return,” the strategists said, per Fortune. “A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).”

“Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators,” they added.

After the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month, the federal government has attempted to maintain confidence in the U.S. banking system, promising to make depositors whole and step in if other banks appear to pose a threat of contagion.

However, the JPMorgan Chase analysts suggested that the current situation could represent a potential “Minsky moment,” referring to the theory that extended bull markets result in major collapses.

The U.S. saw an extended bull market from 2009 through 2020 that was revived in 2021, according to Fortune.