The Bloomberg Factor

Bloomberg. Let’s get wild and crazy here. The guy is serious. We are at a time when 3 out of 4 Americans believe the nation is seriously on the wrong track, both the Congress and the president are mired in approval ratings in the 20s, and the American people show serious signs of imitating the scene from the movie “Network”: They’re mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore.

So enter Bloomberg … maybe. But let’s say he runs and the country’s mood doesn’t change into 2008. Where are we headed?

If Ross Perot can snag 19 percent of the vote after self-destructing, you have to believe that’s a starting point for Bloomberg.

Scenario One:

Now, suppose he wins a few states — maybe even more that a few states — next November. Politics 101 teaches us that you need 270 electoral votes out of 538 to become president, a majority. All states are winner-take-all except Maine and Nebraska, which are winner-take-all by congressional district. If no candidate wins a majority, the top three contenders are to compete in the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. A majority is required for election.

Guess what, fellow Democrats? We won only 18 states in 2004. “Houston, I think we have a problem.” Another movie quote. I don’t like this scenario. How do we Democrats win 26 states? Republicans have to be salivating at the thought of the election going into the House!

If Bloomberg doesn’t win any states, then the only question is: Who does he take the most votes from? This is seriously up in the air, depending upon who the Democratic and Republican candidates are, what kind of campaign he runs, where he will run strong and where he will run weak.

But right now, I am obsessed with the first scenario.