The Monty Hall Paradox

John Tierney has a mind-contorting piece in today’s New York Times that explains the Monty Hall Paradox.

In it he explains how to beat the “Let’s Make a Deal” system. In a typical show, the fabled host gives a contestant the choice of three doors where only one door has the sought-after prize, the other two offering nothing of real value. After the contestant chooses a door, Monty then opens one of the doors that does not contain the prize and gives the contestant the opportunity to switch doors.

What should the contestant do? By switching choices the contestant ditches their one out of three choice and substitutes the odds of being right into two out of three.

Don’t believe me? Play the game yourself.

In discussing the presidential candidates this morning on “Good Morning America,” former Gen. Colin Powell said, “I know them all very, very well. I consider myself a friend of each and every one of them. And I have not decided who I will vote for yet.” But he goes on to praise Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Whether that has meaning or not is being debated.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) dropping out of the race will be like Monty Hall showing what was behind curtain No. 2 — nothing of real value. Then there will be two choices. One has value to the contestant, the other a goat.

Is the former general waiting for the dealmaker to completely shuffle the odds and offer an incentive to pick another door from the one he has secretly already decided on, or is he simply waiting to make a decision and beat the political “Let’s Make a Deal” odds?