Going on the Record

I just want to make sure I get my projection on the record, so that if I’m right I can have undisputed bragging rights for the next four years. Of course, it’s easy for me to make these predictions, because there are never any consequences for a pundit being wrong (just ask Bill Kristol). Not even that one time.

Obama’s electoral total: 379. I believe the big surprise will be Obama’s success in the South, winning Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. This is also a good number to guess, because it allows for an Obama victory in either Indiana or Missouri, since they are both worth 11 electoral votes. You better hurry home from your evening commute, or you may miss the only drama in the presidential campaign if the networks make a call in Virginia at 7 p.m. EST.

Democratic Senate Pickups: 8. I don’t believe that getting to 60 votes is really that important for Obama. If Obama is going to run the type of bipartisan administration he has campaigned on, then it will actually help his cause if he has the support of a consistent handful of Republican senators (beginning with the two ladies in Maine). Additionally, Obama is likely to have so much momentum in his first hundred days that he will probably have the support of 70 or 75 senators.

The race I’m watching the most: Maryland’s 1st district. For the first time in a long time, my home district (the Eastern Shore plus a few other portions of counties from the Western Shore) has a real race on its hands. The 1st district was heavily gerrymandered by Democrats in Annapolis to make it easier for Democrats to win other seats. Centrist Republican Wayne Gilchrest represented the district with distinction for many years, but was primaried this year by far-right state Sen. Andy Harris. This race is tricky to guess, because it’s unclear if the Democratic candidate, Frank Kratovil, will receive much help from Obama’s national and state-wide popularity. I can tell you that when I went to vote this morning, my mom commented that it was the highest turnout she had ever seen in the city of Salisbury (a base for Kratovil).

Number of days before McCain and Palin start openly blaming each other: 3. Everyone points fingers when a team loses, but the real driving motivation for this will be a vacuum in the Republican Party leadership if McCain loses. No one will be able to say with any certainty who is leader of the Republican Party after this election (particularly if Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., loses). The race for the 2012 nomination will begin immediately, and the knives will be flying into GOP backs faster than a Julius Caesar production done on Red Bull.

The views expressed in this blog do not represent the views or opinions of Generations United.