Is Trump really “Mr. Brexit?”
The short answer is no, and here’s why.
{mosads}The “Brexit-won-so-we-can-too” line pops up often on the campaign trail, with Trump citing polls showing “90% support for Remain” before a Brexit vote came out of nowhere to win the day. The 90% stat is derived from odds offered by some gambling firms prior to Brexit, in confidence that the United Kingdom would stay in the EU.
A credible poll just before the vote actually indicated Remain likely winning only 52% of the vote, however. In fact, UK polling numbers were far more modest than the 90% for Remain number Trump likes to mention. Ultimately 51.9% of those who voted opted to leave the EU, a first for any member state. The UK is now in the process of withdrawal, expected to be complete by 2019.
So, while Brexit didn’t exactly win in a landslide, it is true that a lot of pundits and politicians were flat-out wrong about it. Prior to Brexit voters were told far and wide that leaving the EU would be a “mistake of historic proportions,” but a huge number didn’t listen and enthusiastically voted to leave. The pundits and politicians were mostly wrong. Now Trump thunders that they will be wrong about him, too.
But will they?
The most obvious point is that a national referendum based on the number of votes cast is entirely different from an American presidential election. The Electoral College system in the US grants all votes in a state to the winner of that state, with each state worth as many electoral votes as the number of representatives it has in Washington. Florida, for example, has 29 electoral votes, while New Hampshire has only four electoral votes.
Trump doesn’t just need more people to support him to win the election: he needs more people in precisely the right places. In a state like Alabama, which Trump is dominating, for example, even one million more votes wouldn’t really help him. He needs votes in states that are up for grabs.
Instead the opposite is happening. Trump is losing a lot of ground in swing states that are crucial to a win and other states that have formerly been an assumed win for Republicans,such as Arizona. He’s barely ahead in Ohio and he’s lagging in crucial battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. Although the Oct. 6 to 15 Real Clear Politics poll only has Trump down 5.5 points to Clinton, he’s down in all the wrong places. Trump’s path to victory is narrowing rapidly and becoming remote at best.
Now, instead of focusing on growing the ranks on the Trump train, he’s got his eyes on curbing the Clinton vote. This strategy was on display in the Oct. 9 debate, where Trump effectively hit Clinton on multiple issues but did almost nothing to actually advance his own position.
And, while many Trump supporters would like the election to be about the big ideas or focused on how bad they perceive Clinton to be, the truth is it’s still a lot about their candidate himself.
Brexit was basically about an idea: unease with being tied to Europe’s markets and policies (“Euroscepticism”). While it included many of the same themes such as backlash against immigration and free trade, the leave campaign was ultimately not about Nigel Farage, but instead about the goal of leaving the EU.
The Trump campaign is also about some central concepts, but it is much more centered around the man himself and his promise to be the only answer to the misdeeds of the elites. Since he “used to be one of them,” only he holds the key to outwitting them, Trump argues.
The truth is that whatever big ideas Trump latched on to in the campaign about subjects like globalism versus national sovereignty for example, and no matter the amount of times he reassures voters it’s about them not him, the campaign is still very much about him.
And almost every credible poll says Trump won’t be a Mr. Brexit and will lose quite badly.
That is if polling data can be believed at all. Trump’s complaints that the election will be “rigged” are perceived as a dangerous stoking of rage among his supporters in the event of a loss. But Trump and his surrogates’ claims that the polls themselves are skewed contain Trump’s potential Trump card.
Reports emerged from Brexit of secret leave voters, something Trump would no doubt like to see a correlation of in the election. There are certainly indications Trump has his crowd of secret supporters. Trump has long advanced the idea that there are vastly more Trump voters than the polls indicate because people are too embarrassed to admit they support him for fear of being seen as bigoted. This, known as the Bradley Effect, and referred to also as preference falsification (reversal of which is called preference cascade), is Trump’s real Hail Mary pass.
The concept of a “preference cascade” is that many who others believe are in support of the status quo or against Trump will actually buck their stated or assumed position. It’s a highly unlikely fantasy.
Brexit was a surprise, but it had a fairly firm foundation built on years of Eurosceptic thought and a coalition of voters whose interests aligned around it. Trump is basically running on a platform that has also been years in the making and really was waiting for a candidate to come latch onto it. His campaign has clearly drawn passionate support and fervent opposition, but its fortunes are dwindling rapidly.
Electorally, Trump isn’t really in a similar position to Brexit at all and he and his campaign should realize that and act accordingly by facing the polls and doing what they can to recover momentum in swing states, although it may well be too late.
Brian is a freelance journalist whose interests include politics, religion, and world news. His website is www.paulrbrian.com.