Don’t look for Trump to gain ground from debates

The most anticipated event of the 2016 Presidential campaign will take place a few days from now on Monday Sept. 26 when the first of three 90 minute televised Presidential debates between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will occur. The one Vice-Presidential debate between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine will be on Tuesday Oct. 4 with the two remaining Presidential debates on Sunday Oct. 9 and Wednesday Oct. 19.

The 2016 Super Bowl attracted 112 million viewers which was the third most watched event in the history of television. The first Presidential debate in 2012 between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama had 70 million viewers. The Sept. 26 debate between Trump and Clinton will likely have a record number of debate viewers somewhere between the two. In other words – a tremendous audience.

{mosads}Why will a likely record number of Presidential debate viewers watch this first debate?  We know from polls and focus groups in the past that debate viewers watch for basically two reasons — (1) to see a train wreck which has almost never happened in general election debates — at least to this point and, (2) so the voters can be reinforced about their own candidate.

Does he/she look strong, stand tall, look and sound presidential and can their candidate stand up to the other candidate?  In almost every case the answer to these questions is “yes” because most of the voters are leaning to one candidate or the other anyway. That is why these debates– contrary to what many of the high priced pundits are saying —  seldom change anyone’s minds. I didn’t say never – I said seldom.

More often than not — general election Presidential debates have re-confirmed rather than re-configured the public’s view of the candidates.

The candidates have a challenge in preparing for these debates. They need to determine answers to the following six objectives:

1. The image they want to create and the forensic tools they plan to use to convey that image

2. The objective they want to accomplish during the debates

3. The tone they want to set during the debates

4. The overall message they want to communicate

5. What is anticipated from their opponent

6. What results would deem the debate to be a success from their standpoint  

What do voters take away from these debates? Not answers to complex policy questions. Instead they take away an image. These debates are more important for forensics than policy. Detailed policy explanations sail right over the heads of most viewers.

In fact, the more boring the debate the harder it is for the candidate who is behind to catch up. That is why Hillary Clinton especially will try to get into the policy weeds during her answers to questions. She is leading in the polls at present and she will likely be leading in the polls by about the same margin after the debates.

The conservative evening cable news hosts like O’Reilly and Hannity and the afternoon talk radio personalities almost all say that Trump “can turn it around and win the debates.” It isn’t a foot race. A candidate doesn’t “win” a debate. Rather, they try to “cross the threshold of plausibility” with the voters so   voters will feel comfortable with that candidate being their Commander-in-Chief.

Since Trump is currently trailing in almost every poll in almost every key state he has to produce in such a way that will allow him to cross that threshold. That is a tough challenge for him.

The format for these debates will permit an almost gladiator like atmosphere. The moderator will introduce a subject and after giving each candidate two minutes to respond to the question about that subject the moderator will then let the candidates question each other on the same subject  before moving on to another topic. At least that is what is supposed to occur. At the very minimum this should make for fascinating viewing.  

The number of viewers for the general election debates has always decreased with each debate in that particular year unlike some cable pundits such as Dana Perino on FOX insisting that the audience grows for the third debate. (In 2012, for example, 70 million viewers watched the first debate and only 59 million viewers watched the third debate). That is why the first debate is even more critical for Trump than it is for Clinton.  

And finally, in the eleven elections that have had televised debates the leader in the polls after the last debate has always gone on to win the election and by about the exact same margin as the polls indicated just after the final debate. For example, Bush led Kerry by 3% after the last debate in ’04 and won by 3%. Obama led McCain by 6% after the third debate in ’08 and won by 7%.

Obama led Romney by 4% after the final debate in 2012 and won by 4%. So look at the polls 48 hours after the last debate on Oct. 19. You won’t have to wait until election day to know who the 45th President of the United States will be.

The fact that politics is perceptions and atmospherics is never more true than it is in general election Presidential debates. These debates are important. They are part of the fabric of Presidential politics. But despite the almost carnival like hype leading up to the first debate they are unlikely to change the outcome of the election.

Bob Goodwin has worked for four United States Presidents and has participated in debate preparations for a winning Presidential candidate and a winning Vice-Presidential candidate. He lives in the Washington, D.C. area.

The views expressed by Contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.