Trump’s air superiority vs. Cruz’s stealth ground game

For months, there have been grumblings of the inordinate amount of media attention paid to GOP front-runner Donald Trump. To Trump’s credit, whereas many of the presidential candidates routinely shun the media, the billionaire businessman has been a paragon of openness. He has offered access to a wide array of media outlets, including via phone interviews (to the growing disdain of seasoned journalists). The reality television star’s media and marketing savvy has been the key to his political dominance. This strategy of winning the news cycle via free media showcases a level of air superiority unseen from other presidential candidates. However, in bolstering his media efforts, it has become clear that Trump has ceded the infrastructure and ground dominance to his main rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas).

{mosads}The New York Times reports that Trump has received nearly $2 billion in free airtime  this election cycle (while spending only $10 million in advertising). This whopping figure dwarfs all of his Republican rivals and even more than doubles that of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Trump’s all-access approach to the media — combined with his penchant for controversy and salacious headlines — has fueled his rise and shaped media coverage of the race for the White House. In fact, Trump’s airtime is so dominant, he comes only second to President Obama in free coverage for politicians.

Yet as Trump leads in the battle of the air, Cruz is winning the battle of the “process.” Cruz’s cunningness is beginning to pay dividends, which could make it harder for Trump to secure the GOP nomination. The Cruz campaign outfoxed Trump to secure the unpledged delegates at stake in Louisiana, giving Cruz a delegate advantage even though Trump won the Bayou State’s Republican primary. To add insult to injury, in Colorado just last week, Trump was shut out as Cruz secured all six of the delegates elected at two congressional district conventions.

Additionally, there are approximately 150 “unbound” delegates up for grabs from across the country, and Cruz has already begun making overtures to secure their support in an 11th-hour bid to deny Trump the crucial 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination on the first ballot. The Trump campaign, recognizing the looming threat to his would-be victory, has begun making steps to shore up his massive organizational holes. As The Wall Street Journal reports:

The New York businessman has moved to open his first campaign office in Washington, met with foreign-policy advisers and party leaders Thursday [March 31], named two House members to reach out to colleagues on his behalf and hired veteran GOP strategist Paul Manafort to manage his operation at the party convention.

The timing could not be better for the Trump campaign, as his media dominance appears to be showing cracks. His recent comments on abortion and nuclear security have been derided by both parties. Moreover, media outlets are finally giving the real estate mogul the “front-runner treatment,” pressing him for more policy substance and details. Depending on the final tally in Wisconsin, he could find himself shut out of the delegate haul in the Badger State, making his path to the nomination more difficult. This all comes as Cruz continues to ratchet up the ground war. He gave the keynote address at the North Dakota State GOP convention, where he appealed to the state’s 25 unbound delegates to support his candidacy in Cleveland.

Trump is in the unenviable and unprecedented position of fighting a three-front war in his quest for the GOP nomination. He is scrambling to win the “process war against a surging Cruz; stave off a bellicose GOP establishment’s efforts to keep the nomination out of his hands at all cost; and contend with a once-friendly and welcoming fourth estate that is now aggressively pushing back on the GOP front-runner’s policy proposals.

The modern-day political campaign is fueled by the visual optics that cement and underscore a narrative and image that appeal to voters. While Donald Trump has been unable to capture the hearts and minds of a majority of Republican voters, his mastery of the media has successfully catapulted him to Republican front-runner status. Despite his more than $1 billion advantage in free media over his closest rival, his campaign is in jeopardy of being unable to secure the requisite delegates required to represent the GOP in the fall. His superiority of the airwaves won him the media battle, but now it’s the organizational and process battles that could cost him the war.

Ham is author of the national bestseller, “The GOP Civil War: Inside the Battle for the Soul of the Republican Party.” He is a contributor to the P.O.T.U.S. Channel on SiriusXM Radio and provides political analysis for the BBC. Follow him on Twitter @EKH2016.