What the Rolling Stones can tell us about 2016

When Mick Jagger and Keith Richards wrote the lyrics to “(I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction” in 1965, they could hardly have imagined how true the lyrics would ring today.

{mosads}A few weeks ago, Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register ran Iowa poll No. 2125 (between Aug. 23 and 26), which helped clarify why this election cycle has had such turmoil.

This particular poll was based on telephone interviews of 400 registered Republican voters and 404 registered Democratic voters in Iowa; all who said they definitely or probably will attend their respective caucuses.

Within the poll is a section about political “happiness.” The responses requested ranged from “Happy,” to “Satisfied,” to “Unsatisfied,” to “Mad As Hell,” to “Not Sure.”

Guess what we learned from the poll?

People are just not happy with professional politicians!

Converting the language to basic statistical logic, if we use the term “Unhappy” to equal the sum of the “Unsatisfied” plus “Mad as Hell,” then the results learned are expressed as:

Politicians in general
Republicans, 91 percent unhappy 
Democrats, 82 percent unhappy (!)

The U.S. government 
Republicans, 90 percent unhappy 
Democrats, 55 percent unhappy

Republicans in Congress
Republicans, 75 percent unhappy
Democrats, 91 percent unhappy

Democrats in Congress
Republicans, 93 percent unhappy 
Democrats, 51 percent unhappy

What were those Rolling Stones lyrics again?

And the man comes on the radio
And he’s telling me more and more
About some useless information
Supposed to fire my imagination

If we look back at the last 113th Congress, one can clearly see why people are so angry. This was probably the worst Congress in American history. They actually accomplished very little and also managed to shut down the government during their two-year tenure. In addition, they had the highest disapproval rating of any Congress since record-keeping began.

Fortunately, the current 114th Congress is much more proactive, and we do seem to be on the mend. However, Americans don’t forget and are unlikely to forgive.

More than a month has passed since Iowa poll No. 2125 and we can now read the RealClearPolitics national poll average (Sept. 17 to Sept. 24). What remains clear is that while the numbers from the individual state poll may differ, the national sentiment (at least for the Republican candidates) remains pretty much the same as Iowa.

An amazing 52 percent of the RealClearPolitics national summary poll indicates favoritism for the non-politicians. Donald Trump is in the lead at 23.4 percent, Ben Carson second at 17 percent and Carly Fiorina in third with 11.6 percent. The other 12 Republican politicians, combined, poll at 36.3 percent.

Looking at the Democratic field, the concept is more challenging, as the (potential) six candidates are all seasoned politicos and there is no “outsider” in the race. The media are trying to call Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) the outsider but, realistically, how can someone who has served as a mayor, a congressman and a senator be characterized in that fashion? Still, the media explains that Sanders’s rise in the polls is due to the anti-establishment vote.

So, if the Democrats’ outsider is really an insider (but still viewed as an outsider), and if the Republican candidates are truly led by nonpoliticians, then the Rolling Stones’ 50-year-old song was totally correct.

And the man comes on the radio
And he’s telling me more and more
About some useless information
Supposed to fire my imagination

I can’t get no satisfaction

Clearly, what we are plainly seeing is that Americans are just angry at the status quo in the Washington. They want a government that is functional and are pleased to punish representatives of one that is dysfunctional. The core message of the electorate, until something changes, is that if you are from the outside, then you have a competitive edge toward nomination. Time will tell.

Helfenbein is a political pundit and strong advocate for a robust U.S. trade agenda. He lectures frequently on the subjects of supply chain and international trade. Follow him on Twitter @rhelfen.