In debates, can Trump the outsider act presidential?

There is much interest in the buildup to Thursday’s first Republican primary debate. Much ink has been spilled about who will participate in the debate, and which candidates will be relegated to the lower-tiered, also-ran debate set for earlier in the day. Some pundits have written about 49 things to look for in the debate.

{mosads}I have hoped for one: to see Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner, act presidential. In my estimation, Trump brings much to the table as a presidential contender. My fear, however, is that he lacks a long-view strategy for governance.

His recent success in the polls has much to do with two key assets: his name recognition and his rogue attitude in playing the Washington outsider. Certainly, his reputation of “telling it like it is” seems like a breath of fresh air to Americans who mistrust what one prominent conservative radio pundit calls the “ruling class.”

It is unlikely that this successful outsider status of candidate Trump bodes well for a possible future President Trump, however. Examples of potential trappings are seemingly endless. President Carter, the consummate D.C. outsider, failed throughout his presidency in understanding the political environment in which he was working. From his presidential transition to his relationship with Congress, Carter’s lack of political acumen was wonting. Douglas Brinkley, in his book on Carter’s “unfinished presidency,” noted that:

Tales of Carter’s contempt for and ineptitude at politicking were legion on Capitol Hill throughout his term in office. “When it came to the politics of Washington, D.C., he never really understood how the system worked,” Tip O’Neill wrote in his memoirs. “And although this was out of character for Jimmy Carter, he didn’t want to learn about it either.” In fact, O’Neill couldn’t escape the feeling that Carter was working against fellow Democrats — including the Speaker himself.

Clearly then, if an outsider doesn’t learn to preside, there will be extensive weakness in his administration.

Candidate Trump would do well to remember that words on the campaign trail can come back to haunt presidents. Trump, though running as an outsider, should recall that the American political system is one of checks and balances, and that a president must have congressional support to “make America great again.”

Attacks on congressional powerhouses such as Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may undermine his ability to govern were he elected to the White House. It probably doesn’t help that competition includes Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas). If he mounts frontal attacks on them throughout the presidential campaign, it may lead to increased gridlock beginning in 2017.

Unfortunately for the front-runner, there is evidence that campaign promises and quips can lead to deep political divisions and global tensions, and, on occasion, defeat in a second election attempt. George H.W. Bush’s infamous “read my lips, no new taxes” quote during his nomination speech arguably led to the demise of his presidency when, well, he endorsed a new tax.

There are lessons in diplomacy, too, from presidential candidates — and perhaps a few lessons in how Trump views diplomacy. While on the campaign trail in 2012, President Obama remarked that there was a “red line” in Syria regarding the use of Syrian President Bashar Assad government’s use of chemical weapons on the Syrian people. This comment was widely viewed literally, and President Obama was widely derided for not taking direct action against Assad. 

It is fair to ask if candidate Trump is cognizant of foreign policy blunders on the campaign trail, and the possible backlash for future administrations. Trump drew much ire when he announced his presidential run by noting that “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.” Unsurprisingly, the Mexican government found the comments absurd. It should be concerning in an age where there are threats from nations and terror groups, military and economic, where U.S. military branches are becoming smaller and even then can’t meet recruiting goals, that Trump has a glib attitude about diplomacy.

One wonders if his flippant attitude about criticism would allow him to become a good president, even if he becomes president. His unwillingness to participate in the Tuesday’s GOP presidential forum, reportedly because the host newspaper, the New Hampshire Union Leader, probably won’t endorse him, may be illustrative of overall lack of willingness to face criticism from political foes and to attempt to build relationships with politicians he may have rely on later.

My hope for Trump as he progresses deeply into the primary campaign — and he certainly will — is that he takes advantage of the opportunities to hone a diplomatic craft and to realize that he will need political supporters for him to emerge as successful president, not merely a successful presidential candidate.

Gibson is an associate professor of political science at Westminster College in Missouri and a National Security Network (NSN) fellow. The views expressed here are not necessarily the views of NSN.