A vote for Trump is a vote for Clinton
If you supported Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for president a few weeks ago, there’s a good chance you support businessman Donald Trump now. As Trump jumped last month from 4 percent to 11 percent in the Fox poll and from 3 percent to 12 percent in the CNN poll, Cruz dropped 4 and 5 percentage points in those polls.
Why is Trump having so much early success?
Donald Green, professor of political science at Columbia University, explains that “His famously brash and defiant political style appeals to some GOP voters, particularly those who are disaffected with the party and yearn for an outsider who promises to shake things up.”
Much of the GOP base appreciates Cruz’s non-politically correct, tell-it-like-it-is, diplomacy-be-damned style. But it turns out there’s an even less tactful candidate. Now Cruz has been downgraded to a too-P.C. politician and Trump has taken his place in those formerly Cruz-shaped hearts.
{mosads}But the trouble with candidates who “tell it like it is” is that they’re polarizing. They attract the likeminded while simultaneously repelling those with opposing viewpoints.
Trump performed the worst of any Republican in a recent Fox News poll which included hypothetical general election matchups between Republican candidates and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
The poll showed former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) tied with Clinton, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) down 1 point to Clinton, Cruz down 6 points and Trump down a whopping 17 points. Trump did 11 points worse against Clinton than any other Republican included in the poll.
Among white voters, Bush bests Clinton by 14 points while Trump loses the white vote by 15 points. That is a Grand Canyon-sized disparity among a bloc GOP nominee Mitt Romney won by 20 points in the 2012 election.
That’s not to say a conservative should vote for Bush because he polls best among the general electorate.
A voter who considers Bush too moderate (or as the third installment in a series that has yet to thrill) has several viable options. Rubio and Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) are more conservative than Bush while being within striking distance of Clinton in the general election. Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson are much more conservative than Bush, and even they could conceivably upset Clinton’s presidential aspirations. The underreported Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, matches up shockingly well with Clinton (down 6 points) considering only 42 percent of adults recognized her name in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Paul Rutledge, associate professor of political science at the University of West Georgia, says of Trump, “His penchant for controversial statements will mobilize a strong base of partisan support, especially on the extreme right. However, some moderates and most independents will flee from the harsh and unpolished rhetoric.”
Polarizing rhetoric is great if you’re Rush Limbaugh or Greg Gutfeld. I love listening to both those guys, but I wouldn’t buy a Limbaugh/Gutfeld 2016 bumper sticker. A presidential candidate attempting to appeal to the general electorate must possess the power to persuade independent voters. Ethos — the character of the arguer — is key in that.
Ask Romney.
In September 2012, Mother Jones released a video of him saying, “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what.”
You probably remember the infamous “47 percent” comments. I know I do. Romney has said of the comment, “There’s no question that hurt and did real damage to my campaign.”
Did it matter that many conservatives applauded his comments?
No. “Telling it like it is” was campaign suicide for Romney, and the 47 percent comment rages on in American political lore.
Trump has already made so many comments of 47-percent proportions that the media would toss them out by the handful like parade candy. Every time he opens his mouth, he’s creating another ad for the Clinton campaign.
Cast a vote for Trump in the primaries if you enjoy his “tell-it-like-it-is” style, but come 2017, you’ll be listening to him tell it like it is on Fox & Friends while Hillary Clinton is telling it like it isn’t from a White House podium.
Zipperer is assistant professor of political science at Georgia Military College. Follow him on Twitter @eddiezipperer.