It has been a tough week or so for former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.). So much hinged on how New Hampshire voters, and how financial backers, would respond to his support for the war effort of his brother, George W. Bush, in Iraq. And then, how he responded to the plague of journalists who fully supported the war effort, many of them embedded in it, then turned like vengeance demons against the war, and then against Jeb Bush. On top of all that, there was 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, trim and in fighting form, still in the wings and in the ring as well, mano a mano with world-champion boxer Evander Holyfield. Ready to pick up the pace, if Bush flagged.
Holyfield survived the battle and so did Bush. For the first time, Bush has taken the lead in New Hampshire primary polls, key to his future as a Republican prospect for president.
{mosads}Said here in The Hill on April 29, only three weeks ago: “Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will find only one path to victory in 2016: through his brother, former President George W. Bush. And it will all come down to one issue: Was George W. Bush justified in invading Iraq in 2003, or not?”
Support he did, and was nearly torn to shreds. On April 20, Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) lead in four of the five state polls in New Hampshire and tied for the fifth. But as the new polls show, the people agreed with Bush.
New Hampshire was and is key to progress for Bush. If he doesn’t win the primary in this state, it was said, he would not be able to advance.
“Jeb Bush has to win New Hampshire. It’s a must-win for him, because he will lose Iowa. You’ve got to win one of them, particularly if [you’re] considered to be something of a front-runner,” James Carville, Democratic strategist and Clinton ally, offered in February.
“I will go further,” Carville said. “If Jeb Bush loses New Hampshire, they’ll get Mitt Romney back in the race.”
This observation was widely echoed in the press, by liberal as well as conservative commentators.
The New Hampshire primary rises in status against Iowa today, giving Bush added advantage. And Bush may now see opportunity in South Carolina as Lindsey Graham, longtime Republican senator and favorite son, now desires to be president. Graham is likely to advance in South Carolina, but his chances elsewhere are slim and he registers not at all in the national polls where Bush is ahead of the spread by 2.2 percent. And in South Carolina, surely Gov. Nikki Haley (R) understands that she would be a very desireable vice president on the Republican ticket and Graham is unlikely to be at the top of that ticket.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) has received good press as a challenge to the Hillary Clinton political machine, but so far, at least in one poll, the very capable O’Malley has not make traction. It might be the green tie he fancies, apparently appealing to the fact that he is Irish. But the season may be passing for identity politics and we have already experienced what political commentator Larry Sabato calls “Kennedy half-century.” Being Irish today is no big deal. Everybody’s Irish. Does he have any Latino blood? Could be more relevant.
This same poll shows former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (D) ahead of O’Malley and even Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). If the Clinton culture falls to cinders, it is fair to see ahead, according to this poll, a race to the future between Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) and Webb.
That would suddenly make it an interesting race all around.
Quigley is a prize-winning writer who has worked more than 35 years as a book and magazine editor, political commentator and reviewer. For 20 years he has been an amateur farmer, raising Tunis sheep and organic vegetables. He lives in New Hampshire with his wife and four children. Contact him at quigley1985@gmail.com.