Hispanic political takeoff and the presidency

First, the definition of political takeoff: A discernible visible point, at which the political influence and accomplishment of a political class — in this case American Hispanics — enters a new paradigm that can be measured.

The first sign of Hispanic political takeoff around us that reflects the status of the country’s largest and fastest-growing minority group was former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s announcement of his potential presidential run in December coupled with his apparently successful efforts to raise millions of dollars.

{mosads}Why is this a visible point of a Hispanic political ascendency? If he wins, his wife would be the first ever Hispanic first lady and his son George P. Bush would be very visible. He speaks Spanish (like his father and mother) and he is an elected state official in his own right.

Then there is the well-conceived announcement of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for the presidency. It was well-covered and well-received by a surprising number of people willing to part with enough small donations to raise $4 million in a few days.

Then there was the April 13 announcement of everyone’s second choice for the GOP presidential nomination, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), with wall-to-wall coverage.

The 2016 presidential race is on. Hispanics can have a giant voice because they have fellow Hispanics running for president they can support. They have no choice in the Democratic race; they have Hillary Clinton, who has one Hispanic to consider as a vice presidential candidate: Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio.

Prior to the takeover of the California Republican Party by ultra-right-wing-death-on-immigration fanatics, California Hispanics regularly gave 40 percent of their votes to Republicans. In Florida, Cuban refugees became citizens and they slapped the Democrats into a political coffin that is still in force, with Rubio and freshman Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) being examples.

California Hispanic turnout will be even more motivated by the race to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer with the Democratic favorite, Attorney General Kamala Harris, being challenged by at least one statewide Hispanic, Republican state legislator and retired U.S. Marine Col. Rocky Chavez, and possibly, for the Democratic nomination, by Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Orange County. California has never had a Hispanic U.S. senator. California is more than 45 percent Hispanic.

In Texas, Hispanics voted in large numbers for George W. Bush when he ran for governor and did again when he ran for president. In last November’s election, they fled the party of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis and voted solidly (40-percent plus) for Republican Greg Abbott; resulting in the very first Hispanic first lady of Texas, Mrs. Abbott.

How, then, do Hispanic Republicans look at the 2016 nomination process?

Cruz announced. Rubio is running — as a foreign policy candidate. He is using his chairmanship of a Senate subcommittee to challenge President Obama’s opening to Cuba’s Castro dictatorship.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R) has announced. Other Republicans such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Dr. Ben Carson, New York businessman Donald Trump, former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may all run, but only Christie, who nailed 50 percent of the Hispanic vote in his 2013 reelection, has any Hispanic vote potential.

The two leading candidates on which money can be bet for Hispanic support are Bush (Hispanic by marriage, chuckle) and Rubio (who seems to be everyone’s second choice). If they were from different states, they would be the best possible candidates. The Constitution prohibits the president and vice president being from the same state.

Bush would get a slight edge because his deep-rooted loyal Hispanic following in Florida can very well translate to Hispanic support in states like Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Illinois and California. He speaks Spanish well; he is married to woman from Mexico. It does not hurt that his well-known son, George Prescott Bush, the new Texas lands commissioner, looks like his mother and “se habla Español” for real.

Rubio was born in Miami to working-class Cuban immigrants. His father worked as a bartender, his mother made hotel beds. They lived for a time in Las Vegas and returned to Miami, where Rubio attended college and law school. He entered politics in Cuban-rich Miami and rose through the ranks of the legislature as a friend of Bush and led the legislature as speaker. He, too, speaks Español; he is for a strong America and challenges Obama (and surrogate Hillary Clinton) on many foreign policy fronts. He is an intelligent winner who has never lost an election.

First-time candidate Cruz won easily in 2012. He was not hindered by his Canadian birth or his right-wing father. Papa Cruz’s political history morphed from fanatic Castro supporter in Cuba to ultra-right political fanatic. Cruz says he didn’t know he was a Canadian citizen when he was. Cruz’s politics (especially on immigration) are different from Rubio’s; they more reflect Texas back-country simplicity than a complex modern country of 330 million people. Cruz has little chance of Hispanic support.

Paul has no chance of gaining support of Hispanics. His foreign policy views stop at the Mexican border. It is doubtful he can answer five questions about Mexico, or Cuba or Venezuela.

Hispanic support can be important for the GOP nomination, what with primaries in heavily Hispanic Florida, California and Texas, the three states with the most convention delegates and winner-take-all primaries. Whom will they support?

Contreras formerly wrote for Creators Syndicate and the New America News service of The New York Times Syndicate.