The third and final presidential debate goes down tonight, at 9 p.m. local time in Las Vegas. But in terms of the total audience watching at home, the final number will likely be heading toward a drop-off from the 84 million viewers who watched the first showdown between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump just over three weeks ago.
One would think interest would only be increasing since the two first met on stage on Sept. 26, given all the controversial news that has since emerged regarding both candidates — especially Trump — but their second debate showed three things:
1) More than a few Americans were turned off by what they saw out of the candidates in the first debate, with total viewership dropping 20 percent, to 66 million.
2) More than a few Americans think this election is already over, with Clinton decidedly ahead in national polls — RealClearPolitics’s average is at 6.6 points — and in most battleground states — Trump basically has to sweep Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and a handful of smaller states to even entertain the prospect of victory.
3) This Trump-dominated campaign season, from a media perspective, has now been going on for nearly 500 days straight. If the time since Clinton announced in April of 2015 is included, we’re looking at more than 550 days.
Translation: We’re just about burnt out, if not long past that exit already.
{mosads}But back to the first point: Could Trump’s slide in the polls, his uneven debate performances and constant barrage of negative press be depressing not so much his rock-solid 40 percent base but other Republicans who are resigned to the fact he may be on his way to defeat?
Noah Rothman, an assistant editor for Commentary magazine, thinks a lack of suspense over who may win on Nov. 8 is driving down numbers.
“I do expect debate viewership to decline, at least in broadcast,” Rothman says. “Here’s the thing: the election is over. Trump is going to lose. Instant surveys showed that the audience for the second debate skewed Democratic.
“Why?” Rothman asks rhetorically. “Because Democrats wanted to watch Trump lose. Republicans didn’t. That presumption is baked in.”
“This is no longer an election but a series of bias-confirming events,” he concludes. “This final debate will be the last in that series.”
Jeff McCall, a professor of media studies at DePauw University, also predicts waning interest for the third debate.
“The first debate drew a large audience as people tuned in out of curiosity to see how Clinton and Trump would interact,” McCall explains. “People who have seen either of the first debates will not feel compelled to see more rhetorical brawling and posturing.”
“I think most citizens by now know whatever they need to know about the two candidates,” he says.
My prediction? Fifty-two million people will tune in Wednesday night — more than 7 million fewer than the final 2012 debate between Mitt Romney and President Obama.
Romney was actually up slightly nationally (0.4 points) heading into that showdown. In addition, many felt that election, pre-Hurricane Sandy, was a tossup. Romney easily won his first debate; Obama — and debate moderator Candy Crowley — took the second.
The way things look now, a close race ain’t the case in 2016, with Clinton up comfortably and owning the far better organization on the ground.
There’s one more factor: the Dodgers-Cubs faceoff in the National League Championship Series, which features the second and third largest television markets in the country. Baseball playoffs haven’t rated like they used to, but Julia R. Fox, an associate professor in the Indiana University Media School, thinks the game — and particularly national interest in seeing the Cubs make it to their first World Series in 71 years — could have an impact on the final debate audience number.
“Game 4 is at 8 p.m. ET (and will extend into the debate and perhaps even beyond it). Beyond the legions of Cubs fans who will want to watch the game in real time, there is a lot of interest generally in how the Cubs will fare given the club’s history,” says Fox.
“I would expect more mystery and drama in Game 4 than Debate 3, though I certainly hope people will record and watch both.”
When adding up all the primary and general election debates going back to August of 2015, we’re now at Debate #26 — and that doesn’t include the dozens of town halls across both parties that went down as well.
Chris Wallace of Fox News moderates tonight, as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face off one last time. But don’t expect anything close to record-breaking on the ratings front.
In fact, don’t expect much.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.