What happens to Ryan after Trump loses?

It’s as if, instead of falling in a blaze of glory, Davy Crockett meekly handed Old Betsy over to Gen. Santa Anna after the fall of the Alamo — then endorsed his candidacy for the presidency of Mexico. Crockett and his compatriots held out against the Mexican army for 13 days. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) surrendered to Donald Trump in seven. And like Santa Ana, Trump takes no prisoners. Ask New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R).

{mosads}The presumptive GOP nominee disdains leaders of the party establishment and considers them weaklings. They’ve done little to suggest he’s misjudged them, as one-by-one they’ve sidled up to kiss the ring after excoriating him for nine months. Their rationalizations — that the party’s nominee will need their wisdom and policy expertise in the campaign and when he’s president — border on the pitiful. Trump will not be managed, maybe not even by himself. The billionaire is where he is today because he has always let Trump be Trump.

What moved Ryan, in one week, from “not ready” to endorse Trump to ready?

Was it Trump’s rebuke of New Mexico’s Republican governor, Susana Martinez? Perhaps it was his attack on the separation of powers and the rule of law in his 12-minute tirade against U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel. Or was it Trump’s judgment in deciding to exhume discredited conspiracy theories about the Clintons murdering Vince Foster? Maybe the tipping point came when the media shamed Trump into forking over millions of dollars he had promised to give to veterans groups.

And what concessions did Ryan receive from Trump by holding out? None. Worse, he showed weakness.

When it comes to Trump, Ryan has not been the leader of his party; he’s been the follower. He could have taken a principled stand early and helped his members resist the disaster that the GOP now faces (whether Trump wins or loses). Instead, he held back and watched his members cave to Trump until he had no ground to stand on. He now carries the taint of both the establishment and having enabled Trump.

If Republicans hold the House in November, Ryan will have a diminished majority. His allies in purple districts will suffer on Election Day. Conservatives, who tormented former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and are now complicating life for Ryan, will be reelected in their safe, gerrymandered districts. Next year, their negotiating leverage with Ryan will be stronger than it is today.

Ryan will therefore face a dilemma. He can placate the conservatives by continuing the obstructionism of the past six years, or he can turn to governing by dealing with a President Hillary Clinton and House Democrats. The future of the party probably depends on whether it’s prepared to participate in governing the country. Another four or eight years of obstructionism is likely to be lethal, especially considering the nation’s demographic tends. Likewise, Ryan’s prospects for contending for the presidency in 2020 depend on this decision.

The choice between governing and obstructionism will test Ryan’s principles more than deciding whether or not to endorse Trump. Not only will conservatives rebel if he deals with Clinton; the outsiders ascendant in the GOP will vilify him, too. Ryan and his allies will have to turn to Democrats to pass whatever agenda they can work out with the opposition.

Ryan will not be viable in 2020 if he makes the choice to govern. His most formidable opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), is not caught in this vise. He has the luxury of waiting to decide whether and when to endorse Trump based on his strategic calculations. He’ll watch Ryan struggle leading a House as dysfunctional as it has been over the past six years. Or he’ll watch the Speaker burn his bridges with conservatives by working with Democrats.

There is no way out for Ryan — unless Democrats take the House in November. If Ryan loses the Speakership, he’ll bear no responsibility for governing and have much more flexibility in charting his course. But even then, the Democratic majority will be narrow. History suggests that Republicans are likely to pick up enough seats in 2018 to return Ryan to the Speakership. Or maybe he’ll decline the job, avoid the trap and prepare for a presidential campaign that will begin soon after a new Speaker is elected.

Diehl is a former chief of staff of the U.S. Treasury Department, director of the U.S. Mint and staff director of the Senate Finance Committee.