It’s Up to Congress Now

Members of Congress have another week back home to hear from their fellow Americans before returning to the business of legislating on April 20. With two more scheduled recesses in May and July, there are only 13 weeks left for legislative heavy lifting this year. Come September, acknowledge insiders from the Democratic leadership and the Obama administration, nothing big is likely to happen.

So all that change President Obama promised is coming now or probably never. And since the effort to stoke all that hope among Obama’s supporters fell quite flat, we will have to count on members of Congress — in both parties — to actually want to finally solve some of the bigger problems they have put off addressing for so many years. According to The Washington Post, Organizing for America had “little obvious impact on the debate over President Obama’s budget … the capstone of the campaign was the delivery of 214,000 signatures to Capitol Hill, which swayed few, if any, members of Congress, according to legislative aides from both parties.”

Republicans couldn’t be happier that the energy behind Obama’s election doesn’t appear to be standing in the way of opposing Obama in the name of fiscal discipline — the current prescription for the GOP to relocate its soul. Though Republicans blocked Obama’s budget in perfect unanimity, they aren’t the only ones giving Obama a headache. From card-check to healthcare to energy and cuts to missile defense, Democrats are scrambling off the reservation.

Obama’s advisers have already conceded he cannot pass all of his significant reforms this year; now they are just hoping for something. With more they are willing to take on, like immigration — and other issues they won’t be able to dodge, like gay marriage — the hard work ahead just keeps getting harder.

At least one Democrat, veteran strategist Bob Shrum, thinks Obama will be able to keep nervous Democrats on board to pass the huge initiatives he has promised. Shrum thought Obama’s overseas trip was a “triumph” that will increase his momentum with the Congress in the weeks and months to come.

“If Obama could keep the tantrum-ready French President Nicolas Sarkozy from walking out of the G-20 summit, then don’t bet that he can’t keep defection-prone Democrats in Congress from walking away from historic legislation. At stake is not just a few laws, but the future relevance of the Democratic Party and the prospect of a new progressive era for America.”

New poll numbers show patience, as well as approval, remain high for President Obama — for now. But much of his political fate rests in the hands of 535 Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill, and within 13 weeks we will know a lot about what they want to accomplish.

HOW LONG WILL THE PATIENCE LAST? Ask A.B. returns Monday, April 13. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-stage.thehill.com. Thank you.