Macron: Gets a win in France, but now the challenge comes

Following Emmanuel Macron’s win in the first round of the French elections, global markets and political leaders across Europe breathed a sigh of relief.

All indicators give Macron a 60 percent chance of winning the second round on May 7 against extreme right-wing Front National leader, Marine Le Pen.

What could possibly go wrong? 

On June 23 in the United Kingdom, on Nov. 8 in the United States, by late evening, it became clear that all the prognosis and poll driven indicators were dead wrong.

{mosads}The French election is much more fragmented than the binary choices facing the Remain/Leave camps in the Brexit referendum or the Clinton/Trump choice in the US election, but the four way results of the first round carry serious challenges for Emmanuel Macron.

Macron won by barely 24 percent (8.4 million votes), compared to Marine Le Pen’s 21 percent (7.6 million votes) followed by the Republican centrist Francois Fillon at 19.8 percent and the hard left Jean-Luc Melenchon at 19.6 percent.

Both the socially conservative center right Fillon faction and the official Socialist party have called on their supporters to vote for Macron.

However Melenchon (the French Bernie Sanders) has refused to endorse Macron, leaving the fervent supporters of his pro labor reforms, new compact with the EU and increased state subsidies, in limbo and disillusioned. 

Macron, beyond his enthusiastic urban, educated, pro business,socially progressive base needs to capture the older Catholic, socially conservative Fillon voters, but also needs to make inroads into the Melenchon voters,who may turn to LePen or stay home.

Macron’s remarkable feat of splitting traditional parties and leading a new movement, En Marche, created barely a year ago, into contention for the presidency is impressive. Young, dynamic, articulate, he managed to “triangulate” center left as former Socialist Minister of the Economy and center right, as ENA educated former banker.

Claiming independence from all political allegiances, he projects a new modern vision: pro European, pro business, pro investment, but respectful of the French safety net and cultural traditions. Expressing tolerance and “laicisme,” he also wants to project a tough stance on terrorism and security, following the horrific attacks of 2015-2017.

But he does not have a party, nor a political base. He has attracted known talent from Mitterand, Chirac, Hollande factions, but can this positive and international vision counteract Marine Le Pen’s slogan driven, tough on crime, terrorism, xenophobic, nostalgic, anti-globalization, anti-Europe Front National?

This is the existential question facing France and Europe.

In the next ten days Macron needs to force through why Le Pen’s regressive economic platform (leaving the euro, re-denomination of the French debt, increased state expenditures ) will directly affect the welfare, pensions and daily lives of her constituents. He has to be tough on terror, yet explain to the French that universally accepted standards of tolerance and humanistic values are France’s cultural heritage and pride.

He has to be extremely carefully to neither denigrate not disdain the LePen voter, to never treat them as “a basket of deplorables”. 

He needs to get out of Paris and hit every “France profonde” area which may hate him, but perhaps will listen to his message.

He needs to explain in specific (not theoretical policy wonk terms) why being in the EU is to France’s advantage and why leaving would be painful and affect people’s wallets and livelihood.

He must not repeat his first mistake: having a celebratory dinner in a chic Paris bistro with rich cronies (while Le Pen went to a rally in a depressed industrial town).

The next two weeks will be long and brutal, Macron needs to fight for every vote. His base loves him. Now persuade the heart broken Melenchon student supporter who will perhaps vote for him, but sees him as part of “the American way” of business and capitalism.

Irene Finel-Honigman on the faculty at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs. She is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg and EU press and media on EU financial and political issues.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.