Turkey and the Sunni vanguard

Although it is a NATO member, geographically a bridge between Europe and Asia, Turkey’s present leadership is tilting away from the United States. In most respects this is ironic, since President Obama was fond of saying his closest ally on the foreign stage is Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. That friendship has not stood the test of time.

{mosads}The unwillingness of the United States to assist the rebels in Syria was a disappointment to Erdoğan; but even more crucial in undermining the once cozy relationship is the present rapprochement with Iran. Negotiations with Iran over the enrichment of uranium have led to the justifiable belief that the United States will countenance an Iranian bomb. This belief — gaining traction throughout the region — is that a Shiite Crescent, the imperial Persian dream, may be realized with complicit American action.

So profound is this sentiment that tectonic alternations are underway in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has made it clear it does not want a seat in the U.N. Security Council as long as negotiations with Iran continue. Moreover, Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a long standing ally of the United States, has turned against American foreign policy with outspoken vengeance. He has even suggested the U.S. nuclear umbrella is unreliable and has prompted discussion with Pakistan over the acquisition of nuclear weapons should Iran be given a green light for further enrichment of uranium.

It is not coincidental that Turkish foreign policy positions follow a Saudi script, since capital from Riyadh underwrites much of the faltering Turkish economy. Should Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapons, Turkey will be waiting its turn with open arms.

Egypt, once firmly registered in an alliance with the U.S., is now turning to Saudi Arabia for aid and has turned to Russia for military assistance. Emerging from this chaotic Middle East equation is a Sunni alliance composed of Turkey, the nation with the largest army and most formidable air force in the region; Saudi Arabia, the richest of the Gulf states; and Egypt, the most populous Arab nation, in a critical geographic location.

Whether this Sunni alliance can hold is another matter. Erdoğan did support the Muslim Brotherhood, later overthrown by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the Egyptian military. The new Egyptian government has vowed to reinforce the peace treaty with Israel that former President Mohamed Morsi pledged to abrogate, a move Erdoğan has publicly criticized. And Saudi Arabia’s ascension to a leadership position because it pays the bills may not last if fracking and new technologies replace the global reliance on Middle East oil.

Notwithstanding this fragility, there is an impending Iranian threat that unites Sunni brethren. Erdoğan is not a beloved figure in this shaky alliance. He has one foot in the camp of moderates and one in the miasma of terrorists. He is known to be unreliable. He is also in a precarious electoral position at home. A corruption scandal, a dramatic increase in interest rates to forestall a precipitous decline in the lira, demonstrations on the streets of Istanbul and Ankara and the end of the Turkish economic miracle — which gave Erdogan a free ride as prime minister from 2002 to 2008 — contribute to an unpredictable and dangerous period ahead.

Turkey has a history of deposing popularly elected governments with military coups. This scenario cannot be ruled out despite efforts by Erdoğan to purge the military of prospective opponents. The debt bomb is ticking, and Erdoğan’s friends at home and abroad may believe it is time for him to go. Recent polls indicate he has lost support across the country.

In many respects, Turkey in its present position is an exemplar of the Middle East. It is divided by geography, religious loyalties and politics. It is moderate in many ways, going back to the secular program of the first Turkish President Kemal Atatürk, and also extreme, as the Erdoğan program for Islamization would suggest. It wants to reside in the 21st century, but continually looks into the rear-view mirror at the former Ottoman Empire. It is pro-West and anti-West. It has been with the United States and now against it. It was an economic miracle, the darling of Wall Street for a decade, but is riddled with debt. In fact, at any given moment, almost anything one says about Turkey could be true.

London is president of the London Center for Policy Research.