Remember when there were two Yasser Arafats? There was the good one, the Nobel Prize-winning peacemaker who embraced a settlement with Israel, condemned terrorism and charmed political leaders and journalists all over the world. And then there was the bad Arafat, the terrorist leader who promised his own people that he would forever pursue the goal of destroying Israel and driving the Jews into the ocean.
{mosads}This forked-tongue approach worked well on both fronts, and it took decades for many in the West to realize they were being manipulated. Over time, the latter Arafat was proven to be the real Arafat, which meant there was really no hope for the “peace process,” a condition that sadly defines the situation today. There isn’t going to be peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the foreseeable future.
The same technique is used today by the Iranians, who play “good guy, bad guy” with multiple actors. Instead of one forked tongue, there are several. There are the good ones, the buddies of Western diplomats, reporters and gurus: President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are in the front ranks. They constantly speak sweetly and promise that the “grand bargain” can be reached, if only we are respectful to them and show a bit more patience.
Then there is the bad guy, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who leads the public chants of “death to America,” denounces our satanic essence and sends Iranian jihadis around to the world to murder Americans and friends of America.
As we head toward the latest negotiating deadline on the Iranian nuclear weapons project, analysts and policymakers are trying to figure out whether the good guys or the bad guys will call the final shots. But this is Arafat all over again: The good guys are integral parts of the system ruled by Khamenei, not “moderates” trying to achieve real peace.
Khamenei is the real Rouhani.
That is why I have always been skeptical about chances for a grand bargain between the United States and Iran, just as I have always been skeptical about a successful peace process.
Here’s the logic:
No Palestinian-Israeli peace because the Palestinians don’t want it; they want the Israelis dead or destroyed.
No grand bargain with Iran because the Iranians don’t want it; they want us dead or destroyed.
So don’t be surprised if the deadlines are moved down the road yet again, with the usual talk of “great progress” having been made.
If that is correct, it bespeaks either another significant intelligence failure (just as we failed to understand what Arafat was really all about, so we have failed to understand who the Iranians are and what they really want) or a refusal by the president to accept the obvious: Namely, that the Iranian leaders are our implacable enemies, and thus any deal with them would be as meaningless as the Oslo Accords were in the peace process.
It’s hard to tell, but I have the impression that this president is quite capable of denying what’s in front of his nose. The White House says that the chants of “death to America” are just a domestic political gesture. But this regime has been murdering Americans since its inception in 1979. I think our spooks are well aware of that history, and that the president prefers to ignore it.
I don’t think this will end well for America.
Ledeen, the author of more than 30 books, is the Freedom Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He was special adviser to former Secretary of State Alexander Haig and a consultant to the national security adviser during the Reagan administration.