The Markets Have Already Spoken About the Next President

The wild swings on Wall Street every day are almost to be expected, but they still are hard to stomach by even the most seasoned investors.

The extreme volatility in the markets, however, is very telling about the attitude of businesses, consumers and the larger investment community. In other words, no one seems to be optimistic about Nov. 4 and what is in store for the country in the months and years to come — whether the leadership is Republican or Democrat.

Why? Think Finance 101. The “efficient market theory” is one of the fundamental tenets of finance that suggests prices for assets like stocks and bonds reflect all known information. If that hypothesis holds true, the markets have already given their vote of confidence — or lack thereof — on both candidates.

It seems that the daily capitulation and multiyear lows in the capital markets are a reflection that investors have little confidence about the state of our economy in the coming months — regardless who is elected as commander in chief on Nov. 4. This does not bode well for consumers, businesses or the new administration.

Do any of you reading this blog truly believe that Obama or McCain will have an immediate positive impact on the market if elected? Considering Sen. Obama’s inexperience in understanding how global economies work and what he’s now proposing economically for the country, this could spell further doom and disaster for the world economy. On the other hand, McCain may have the experience, but does he have the temperament and discipline to leave well enough alone until the market corrects itself?

I would welcome feedback from you sophisticates with strong opinions on who is best to guide us through this economic tsunami. Please don’t spew the party lines in responding, just give us hard facts and figures that makes sense as we move dangerously ahead.

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