Putin’s power play

Russia-watchers are going to have a field day with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest move. Russian warplanes began airstrikes in Syria on Wednesday, adding a new and dangerous piece to an already complex Syrian puzzle. Once again, Putin doubles down and raises up the stakes with his unique sense of timing.

{mosads}How convenient that the airstrikes took place just as President Obama left New York, leaving Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to deal with the need for diplomacy to settle Syria — something the Russians are eager to jump-start, providing they get to have a seat at the table should there be any diplomatic table at which to resolve the bloody civil war.

The Russian strikes follow sharp disagreement between Moscow and Washington over the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad, with Putin insisting that Syria’s embattled government is the key to stability and Obama saying the status quo cannot stand after more than four years of bloodshed. In case anyone missed that debate, the Russian military actions will remind governments where Moscow stands on Syria.

So why would Russia take such bold action on the ground near Homs, Syria, where the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) — the supposed target of their strikes — is not clustered? Clearly there is a gap between Russian rhetoric from Moscow and Russian military action on the ground, leading most analysts to see this as a prop-up operation for forces loyal to Assad and an attempt to root out any moderate rebels challenging the Syrian government. Caught in the middle are innocent Syrian civilians.

The bigger question is: Why is Russia making noise from the air now, as if to pave the way for diplomacy? Because Russia knows that the Syrian civil war has gone too far. Too many refugees are now flooding into Europe and Russia’s own southern border is vulnerable. Russia also knows that ISIS has gone too far. Terrorism is not something the Russians like to see get out of control.

So if you are Putin, how do you make it clear that you are expecting to be part of a solution to Syria and that you are ready to deal? Use military force. That’s how they signaled their intentions in Ukraine and it usually gets the world’s attention. In this case, Putin went so far as to dispatch a Russian envoy to the American embassy in Baghdad an hour before the Russian air campaign began: to make sure we got the message. He managed to get attention off Ukraine and squarely onto Syria, leaving no doubt that Russia sees itself as a player in any comprehensive solution to any Middle East problem.

Putin has a way of destabilizing situations and turning the tables. Yes, Washington quickly criticized the airstrikes, which the Pentagon said apparently hit areas where ISIS militants probably were not present. But despite hot rhetoric, now both the United States and Russia have to deal with each other to “de-conflict” conflicting air campaigns to avoid an accident. And what do you know: Both top diplomats of America and Russia just happen to be in the same building in New York, having a joint press conference — raising Lavrov up to the podium to be heard as an equal player with our secretary of State.

There’s an old concept in foreign policy where countries bomb their way to the negotiating table; force in the stead of diplomacy. Let’s hope that explains Putin’s power play. But don’t count on it. Being meddlesome is a Russian art, and yet again, they are painting the world into a corner. But for the sake of civilians, and conflict avoidance, we will have to play in their sandbox.

Sonenshine is former under secretary of State for public diplomacy and public affairs and is a lecturer at George Washington University.