Contradictory Indications

If you look at Virginia and Kentucky, it looks like a narrow McCain victory. If you look at Florida and Indiana, it looks like a big Obama win. All four states have less than a quarter of the vote in, so we can’t jump to conclusions.

In Virginia, with 19 percent of the vote in, McCain is winning by 13 percent. That’s about 10 points better than it should be for McCain. In Kentucky, with 23 percent in, McCain is winning by 15. That’s about six points better than it should be for McCain.

But in Florida, with 13 percent in, Obama is winning by 11 points, which is 11 points better than it should be for Obama. And in Indiana, McCain is winning by only 3 percent with 25 percent in. That’s six points less than it should be.

On Senate races, Sen. Susan Collins’s (R) win in Maine is important. That indicates, perhaps, that the Dems won’t reach 60 votes.