This week: The new Congress begins

Welcome to the 115th Congress.

President-elect Donald Trump won’t be sworn into office for a few more weeks, but lawmakers are returning to the Capitol on Tuesday to prepare for the new administration. 

Here’s what to watch this week as 2017 gets underway. 

Election of the Speaker 

First up in the House will be the floor vote Tuesday to elect a Speaker for the new Congress. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is expected to easily win reelection, a sharp turnaround from a few months ago when it appeared he would face major opposition from conservatives angry that he distanced himself from Trump.

{mosads}A handful of Republicans may still vote for someone else. Ten conservatives didn’t vote for Ryan when he was first elected Speaker in October 2015.

The bigger question may be how many Democrats vote against House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

Sixty-three Democrats supported Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) over Pelosi in November’s secret-ballot, closed-door leadership elections amid unrest in the caucus. But it’s another story in the public House floor vote, where lawmakers can’t hide behind the cloak of anonymity as they state their choice for Speaker before C-SPAN’s cameras. 

There are the usual suspects who’ve repeatedly cast protest votes, like Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) for former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.).

So far, two other Democrats apart from Cooper and Sinema said they’ll oppose Pelosi in Tuesday’s floor vote: Reps. Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) and Dan Lipinski (Ill.).  

Defections are still expected to be lower than Pelosi’s all-time high in 2011, when 20 mostly centrist Democrats voted against her. 

Even so, any apparent party divisions will be unwanted distractions for both Ryan and Pelosi, who each want to project united fronts heading into the new Congress and administration.  

Across the Capitol, the Senate’s seven new lawmakers are expected to be sworn in Tuesday by outgoing Vice President Joe Biden.

ObamaCare repeal

The Senate is expected to start laying the groundwork for repealing ObamaCare this week.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters late last year that “the ObamaCare repeal resolution will be the first item up in the New Year.” 

The measure is expected to be a shell budget that will include the instructions for repealing large chunks of the law under reconciliation. The budgetary process will allow the rollback to clear the upper chamber by a simple majority vote, bypassing a 60-vote hurdle that would have required the support of at least eight Democrats.

Though the move will steer Republicans toward fulfilling a years-long campaign pledge, its gotten pushback from some lawmakers.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told a local newspaper that she was undecided on whether to back repealing ObamaCare without a replacement plan hashed out. 

“You can’t just drop insurance for 84,000 people,” Collins told the Portland Press Herald, referring to people who have gained insurance through the Affordable Care Act in Maine.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) could also buck the budget, even though he supports repealing ObamaCare, unless it balances. 

Senate GOP leadership can only afford to lose two votes, unless they pick up support from some Democrats. If the Senate splits 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden would be responsible for breaking the tie, and would be all but guaranteed to vote against repeal.

No Democrat has publicly said they will vote in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act.  

President Obama will meet with House and Senate Democrats on Wednesday morning to hash out a strategy to fight against the GOP’s effort to repeal his signature legislative achievement.

GOP cracks down on sit-ins

Once the House elects a new Speaker, lawmakers will consider a rules package for the new Congress. The usually-humdrum affair will be far more controversial this year thanks to proposed provisions meant to deter Democrats from staging another House floor sit-in like the one in June.

GOP leaders were powerless to force Democrats, who were calling for action on gun control legislation, off the House floor in the aftermath of the shooting at Pulse Nightclub this past summer. 

They’re determined to prevent Democrats from establishing what they see as a dangerous precedent of a House minority unilaterally snatching control from the majority party. 

The draft proposal would fine lawmakers $500 for violating the prohibition on taking photos and video on the House floor, and $2,500 for subsequent offenses. The fines would be deducted from members’ annual salaries.

Lawmakers of both parties have routinely violated the House floor photography ban over the years, particularly during high-profile events such as the State of the Union or an address from a foreign leader. But Republicans were particularly incensed when multiple Democrats found a way around the deactivated C-SPAN cameras by live-streaming the sit-in proceedings from their cell phones.

Democrats maintain that the GOP’s deterrence efforts won’t stop them from launching similar protests to call for a response to gun violence.

U.N.’s Israel vote 

Lawmakers in both parties are upset over the Obama administration’s decision allowing the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution condemning Israel’s settlement activity. 

Some Republicans, like Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.), have called for cutting U.S. funding to the United Nations in retaliation. Trump has made clear he’ll take a different approach to Israel, slamming Obama’s strained relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

In the meantime, the House will vote Thursday on a resolution disapproving of the U.N. vote. Many Democrats could join with Republicans to pass the measure as a means of demonstrating their support for Israel, even if their votes would put them at odds with President Obama.

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) will introduce a resolution on Tuesday condemning the U.N. vote.

Regulatory reform

The House will take up two bills to scale back Obama administration regulations, which for once are likely to get a presidential signature come Jan. 20. 

One would require congressional approval of major regulations, while the other would allow Congress to reject regulations finalized in the last days of the Obama administration. Similar measures passed the House in the last session of Congress, but never reached Obama’s desk.

The Obama administration is trying to move as much of its regulatory agenda as possible before Trump takes office. The Environmental Protection Agency issued a new rule last month that establishes standards for companies testing and maintain streams affected by coal mining. 

Other potential late-in-the-game regulations could include delaying compensation to Wall Street executives from profits off risky short-term bets; setting new energy efficiency standards for home gas and electric stovetops and ovens; and establishing how animals must be treated in order for meat to be sold as “certified organic.”

– Mike Lillis and Lydia Wheeler contributed.