Idaho will run red but don’t dismiss the blue just yet

Two factors may thwart expectations of a Republican replay of the 1994 midterm elections.  First, the  closing days of the election campaign will feature an energetic and intense appeal to those groups that were largely responsible for President Obama’s victory in 2008 and, if successful, it may well block a Republican resurgence.  In a return to his role as Campaigner-in-Chief, President Obama is turning to young voters, women and blacks with a simple message:  Don’t give up on us yet;  we need more time to overcome the problems that we inherited and nearly buried America.  That plea, coupled with an effective reminder from Obama and Bill Clinton, who remains the Democrats’ most effective campaigner, that voters have a real choice in this election on issues that matter most to Americans, will offer Democrats more than a fighting chance to stay in power. Consider as well a likely last-minute, televised appeal from Obama to voters that reiterates the significant accomplishments of the Obama Administration and asks for additional time to achieve additional goals.

The second salient factor, and the one most difficult to judge at this point, involves the success of each party at engaging in guilt-by association.  Republicans across the nation warn voters that Democratic candidates support Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid—even if they don’t.  Democrats, in turn, attempt to persuade that all Republican candidates share the views of Tea Partiers—even if they don’t.  The outcome of many races and thus control of Congress may hinge on the employment of this tactic.

In Idaho, the most competitive race is found in the 1st Congressional District, a contest that pits a one-term incumbent, Democrat Walt Minnick, against conservative Republican challenger, Raul Labrador. This is a fascinating race to watch, for several reasons .The district is a Republican district.  Minnick’s slim victory in 2008 was made possible by virtue of the fact that his opponent was viewed by many Republicans as “too” conservative.   Minnick enjoys a slight lead over his rival, although recent polling indicates that some 8-10% of likely voters remain undecided. His lead reflects a shrewd voting record in the House and some clever campaign strategies.  What is striking is that Minnick has torn a page from Bill Clinton’s playbook on triangulation.  Minnick voted against TARP, against the stimulus plan, against health care and against cap-and-trade.  Those votes deprived Labrador of significant attack points.  Put another way, if Minnick had voted for each of those programs he would have been very vulnerable.  Without those issues, Labrador had been forced to retreat to the shopworn argument that there is no difference between Minnick and Pelosi.  The problem with that argument is that Minnick votes with Republicans 70% of the time, and that his voting record runs in harness with his counterpart in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District, a Republican fixture, Mike Simpson. In recent weeks, Minnick and Labrador have sparred over immigration, but neither is likely to gain an advantage on those issues.

Other races in Idaho are running true to form:  In this reddest of states, Republicans expect to prevail.  The anti-incumbency fervor that is sweeping America has no legs in Idaho. Sen. Mike Crapo, seeking reelection to his seat in the U.S. Senate, will likely win by large numbers.  Rep. Simpson has only token opposition.  Incumbent Governor, Butch Otter, a Republican, is engaged in a spirited race with Democratic challenger, Keith Allred. Allred is a well-known founder of the Common Interest, a non-partisan group whose work in Idaho politics has won plaudits from both Democrats and Republicans.  His campaign has hewed the middle of the road.  While a recent poll indicates that Otter enjoys a 12-15% lead and is expected to win reelection, there remain some interesting angles to this race.  First, that same poll indicates that some 20% of likely voters remain undecided. Second,  a number of prominent former GOP officials have endorsed Allred. Third, the campaigns are focused on southeastern Idaho, a region of the state that features a large Mormon population.  Allred is a member of the Church of Latter-Day Saints, and his religious affiliation has increased his profile among likely voters.  Gov. Otter’s campaign has taken due notice of the religious factor and recently brought in Republican leader, Mitt Romney, also a Mormon, for a campaign stop on behalf of Otter.

David Gray Adler is James A. McClure Professor and Director of the James A. and Louise McClure Center for Public Policy Research at the University of Idaho.