Living and dying through party politics

If the pollsters are proven correct, and the Republicans take the House but not the Senate, it will become very tricky for members of both parties to maintain the high levels of partisan unity we have seen in the last few years.  If predictions come true, there will be a wide range of policy views within the Republican Party in both the House and the Senate, and John Boehner and Mitch McConnell will have their work cut out for them to produce coherence within and across the House and Senate.  The Republicans will have to transition from the party of opposition to the party of governing, at least in the House, and with the exception of repealing the Obama health care legislation, they have offered very little in the way of a coherent policy platform.  In these difficult economic times, it will not be enough to pass bills on the House floor only to see them stalled in the Senate and vetoed by the President.

If the Republicans want to succeed electorally in 2012, they will have to succeed legislatively; if they fail then they will have a hard time convincing voters to give the Republicans complete control of government.  The catch-22 is the president’s veto power.  Legislative success for the Republicans – defined as passing bills into law – depends on cooperation from President Obama because Republicans are unlikely to have a veto proof majority. Having a Republican majority allows President Obama to return to his 2008 campaign promise to cross the aisle and fashion bipartisan compromises.  That means that everyone can claim victory, undercutting the Republicans’ case for giving them the White House back in 2012.  Of course in our separation of powers system, one can imagine John Boehner wanting to stay Speaker, but not going out on a limb for Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or Tim Pawlenty on their presidential quests.

The path is not much easier for the Democrats in Congress.  If the Democrats who lose in 2010 are the more conservative members of the party, then the liberal wing can band together to oppose Republican policies in both chambers.  However, those liberal Democrats may find themselves lonely if President Obama decides to pursue more moderate strategies. If the Democratic Party in Congress emerges from 2010 more heterogeneous then maintaining a unified opposition will be harder. Ironically that may mean greater success for the Democrats in 2012 because individual members will have more flexibility to run tailored campaigns in their districts and states.  The Democrats will also have to rethink their policy platform and be careful to choose battles – pro and con – that resonate with voters who have become disillusioned with the intent, and capacity, of the federal government to help them.

For Republicans, the 2010 elections may be a time to rejoice, but that celebration may not last as long as they hope if the Democrats hold the White House in 2012.  For Democrats, perhaps this election will serve as a signal to recalibrate their policies and learn that a clear explanation of policy is almost worth more in American politics than the policy itself.  For the rest of us, enjoy watching democracy in action.  It is not always nice, or pretty, or dignified, but at 234 years old, it remains vital and exciting. Pretty good for its age.

Wendy Schiller is an associate professor of political science at Brown University.