Republicans looking for key wins in Arkansas

It increasingly looks like 2008 was more harbinger than outlier. Lately former President Clinton has been stumping for Blanche Lincoln and other Democrats (Chad Causey in the 1st District, Joyce Elliott in the 2nd). But it might be too little, too late. Republicans have sizeable leads in the polls in all three races, and Arkansas seems poised for its own change election this November. Here’s what I’ll be watching for on election night.

In Arkansas

Two of the four House seats could flip from the Democratic to the Republican column (the 3rd in Northwest Arkansas looks to be a safe Republican hold, and 4th District incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Ross has a double digit lead in polling in his race). In particular, I’ll be watching for returns out of the counties of Saline, Faulkner, and White for the 2nd Congressional District. These three counties house multiple suburban communities within short driving distance of Little Rock. They each have seen tremendous population growth over the past 10 years, and along with that growth, a significant uptick in support for GOP candidates. Pulaski County, which typically provides a large boost to Democrats, has to turn out big to counterbalance this electoral shift. High turnout alone may not be enough, though. In 2008, the gap in favor of McCain in Saline alone matched Obama’s advantage in Pulaski (with roughly 4 times the registered vote). Similar sized gaps opened up in Faulkner and White as well. Democratic State Senator Joyce Elliott faces some tough electoral math in this district, and Republican Tim Griffin is hoping for an early night. 

In the 1st District Democrat Chad Causey attempts to take over for Representative Marion Berry, who has held the seat since the 1996 election. This was Blanche Lincoln’s old seat before her move to the Senate, and a seat the Democrats have held for generations. If the Republicans win it, it will be one of the main stories (along with a potential pick-up in the Senate race) that breaks through to the national discussion. Two counties to watch in this race are Crittenden (home to West Memphis) and Craighead (home to the college town of Jonesboro). Crittenden was one of only a handful of counties where Obama’s support in 2008 outperformed Kerry’s in 2004. But in terms of the vote, Crittenden is about half the size of Craighead, which did the opposite and turned a 7 point loss for Kerry in ‘04 into a 24 point deficit for Obama in ‘08. Right now the polls are pointing to a lead for Republican candidate Rick Crawford, and President Clinton and Senator Lincoln recently made campaign stops in Jonesboro to try and shore up the seat.

Turnout will no doubt be lower in this midterm election than it was in 2008, but these recent Presidential election trends illustrate a larger reality in Arkansas. To be successful, Democrats have to be able to not only convince voters that they are still right for the job – they increasingly have to do that while differentiating themselves from the national party. In the past, they have been successful in striking a balance, but this election seems different, and Republicans appear well poised to take advantage of the opportunity.  

Around the nation

While some of the Tea Party backed candidates are enjoying leads in the polls, others are in a battle to carry their momentum in the primary through to the general. Christine O’Donnell in Delaware is in an uphill battle against Democrat Chris Coons in a race that flipped from likely Republican to likely Democratic once she defeated Mike Castle for the GOP nomination. And in Nevada Sharron Angle looks to be in a toss-up in her race against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. If O’Donnell can pull off the win in a state where Democratic registration heavily outweighs Republican, it will be a very long night for the Democrats. But my attention will mostly be on several races out West where perceptions of the Tea Party’s success (and perhaps by extension, Sarah Palin’s) may well hinge on the results out of Nevada and Colorado. 

Drummond is an assistant professor with a PhD in political science at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock