Pay attention to New Hampshire

This once solid Republican bastion has trended blue since 2004, when John Kerry won, and again in 2006 and 2008, when the Democrats swept the table, taking everything from the governorship and the legislature to formerly Republican Senate and Congressional seats.

But Republicans have a real chance to reverse these trends this year. While sample sizes have been small, polls suggest that GOP candidates are doing better than in recent years. In the first Congressional district, Republican Frank Guinta leads incumbant Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and in the Senate race Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democrat Paul Hodes. (Democratic Governor John Lynch is polling well over 50 percent and likely will defeat Republican John Steven.)

The closest race is in the second Congressional district where former Republican Congressman, moderate Charlie Bass holds the slimmest of leads over liberal Democrat Ann McClane Kuster but Bass is vulnerable. His support is well under 50 percent in a district where he is very well known and has much higher unfavorables than Kuster. Many voters say they are still undecided.

The possibility that Democrats could hold on in N.H. has risen recently, as all three Republican candidates running for Congress and Senate are suddenly on the defensive over possible serious ethical lapses. Democrats are attacking Guinta over alleged violations of campaign financing laws, including an unexplained and undisclosed bank account of at least $250,000. Bass has been accused of lobbying the Bush administration to the benefit of a company he may have owned stock in (he claims he purchased the stock later on).

The potentially most damaging ethical scandal, however, is the one that has just exploded over emails sent by Senate candidate Ayotte to her now chief political strategist when she was Attorney General. The emails suggest she sought the death penalty in a high profile case in order to position herself to run for higher office as a tough-on-crime candidate. An editorial in the Concord Monitor signed by several former prosectors, accuses her of violating prosecutorial ethics. Her opponent, Paul Hodes is demanding answers.

These races likely will all be close, but if the GOP takes most or all of them, it will show that even New England is not immune to national trends. On the other hand, if the Democrats prevail in New Hampshire, it will be a clear sign that the blue trend that started earlier in the decade was robust enough to withstand even a strong national Republican tailwind. Democratic victories in the current national context would suggest that New Hampshire’s blue trend is structural, based upon enduring demographic trends more than upon contingent factors, and that New England is now solidly blue.  Both parties should be watching closely.

Michael Contarino, Ph.D.  is Associate Professor and Director of the Politics and Society program at the University of New Hampshire at Manchester.  He was Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the presidential campaign of Governor Bill Richardson.