Friendly poll shows NV GOP chairwoman beating Reid

A new GOP poll shows Nevada state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden defeating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), 48-42, in a head-to-head matchup.

The Vitale and Associates poll was commissioned by supporters of Lowden who are trying to lure her into the race against Reid should Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) opt not to run.

Apart from Heller, the field to face Reid is full of a bunch of no-names. But even polling on those candidates has shown a competitive race with Reid.

Lowden’s lead is interesting, but it’s hard to believe a state party chairwoman is really well-known enough to score nearly half of the vote, sight unseen. It also seems unlikely that just 10 percent of voters are undecided 15 months before the election.

More likely, the poll follows the model used by some pollsters which tries to draw out undecided voters to pick a side. Reid is probably somewhere around 42 percent either way, but other polling on the race would probably show Lowden much lower and undecideds higher.

Reid’s favorability in the poll is at 39 percent, while 34 percent of voters say they will vote to reelect him. Those numbers are in line with other polling on the race.

The poll also tested Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who has seen his favorability tumble after revelations about an affair with a staffer. Ensign is viewed favorably by 40 percent of voters – just one point higher than the perpetually unpopular Reid – and unfavorably by 46 percent.