NRSC poll shows Hoeven up 17 on Dorgan

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is polling in North Dakota, and the findings show Gov. John Hoeven (R) easily beating Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) in a hypothetical matchup.

The only other recent poll on the race, a February survey from Research 2000 for Daily Kos, showed Dorgan up 57-35. But the NRSC’s poll, which was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Hoeven leading by double digits, 53-36.

The actual race state of the race is probably somewhere between those two. Even though Hoeven is extremely popular, it’s hard to see him beating a well-regarded incumbent by 17 points.

The NRSC’s poll put Hoeven’s favorability at an unheard-of 86 percent, with just 5 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him. Those numbers seem implausible, but the fact remains that he is very, very popular.

Dorgan, meanwhile, has 69 percent favorability and 24 percent unfavorables.

It’s interesting that the NRSC is putting this poll out publicly. Rest assured, this is part of a larger effort to lure Hoeven into the race. But the climb appears steep in getting him to leave the governor’s mansion.

He must have shown at least enough interest for the committee to go out on a limb, though.