Trump widens lead over GOP field in survey of Pennsylvania Republicans

Former President Trump’s lead over other GOP presidential candidates widened in a new survey of Pennsylvania Republicans. 

Trump now leads his closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 41 points, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll of registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania, with 55 percent supporting Trump and 14 percent supporting DeSantis. 

Trump’s lead represents a 16-point boost from previous polling in August 2023, when Trump’s support was at 39 percent. The April 2023 survey had Trump at 40 percent. The October poll also marks the first time in months that he has received a majority of the GOP voters’ support in Pennsylvania.

For DeSantis, the new numbers continue a steady drop in support among GOP registered voters in Pennsylvania. In October 2023, DeSantis’s support was at 14 percent, in August 2023, his support was at 21 percent, and in April 2023, his support was at 34 percent.

The October poll also reveals a shift in support among the rest of the GOP field. The previous poll was conducted in the days leading up to the first GOP primary debate in August.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, now in third place, saw the most momentum in the last few months of all the candidates, aside from Trump. In October, she polled at 9 percent, up from 5 percent in August, and 4 percent in April. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie saw a slight uptick in support, at 4 percent in October, from 3 percent in August, and zero percent in April. Both candidates received mostly positive media coverage after the two debates. 

The rest of the candidates only saw their support drop in October, after some saw an uptick in polls ahead of the August debate.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s support has fallen to 5 percent in October, from 9 percent in August. Former Vice President Mike Pence’s support fell to 2 percent in October, from 5 percent in August. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) saw his support fall to 3 percent in October, from 6 percent in August.

Pennsylvania represents one of the most important states ahead of the 2024 presidential election. It has long been seen as a swing state and was one of the most highly contested during the 2020 general election. Biden ultimatley won the state’s electoral votes in 2020. 

The new poll was conducted Oct. 11-22, by phone or online, and included 873 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 359 Republicans. The sample error for questions on the Republican primary is plus or minus 6.4 percent.