NOAA declares El Nino conditions are present, expected to strengthen

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared the arrival of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that brings warmer sea temperatures near the equator.  

According to NOAA, El Nino, which occurs every two to seven years on average, can bring heavier rainfall to some parts of the world and droughts to other parts. NOAA added that El Nino’s effects on the United States will be weak during the summer but “more pronounced” by late fall through the spring.  

“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” Michelle L’Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, said.

“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino,” L’Heureux added.

NOAA noted that by the time winter rolls around, there will be an 84 percent chance of a “greater than a moderate strength” El Nino and a 56 percent chance that a strong El Nino will develop. A moderate to strong El Nino system could bring above-average rainfall from southern California to along the Gulf Coast but will bring above-average dry conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

Overall, an El Nino winter is more likely to bring above-average temperatures for the northern parts of the U.S., the agency said. The presence of El Nino will also affect 2023 hurricane outlooks, with NOAA explaining that the presence of El Nino conditions typically helps “suppress” hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, while it “favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.”