Forecast raises expectations of hurricane hitting ground in Texas

A new hurricane season forecast showed an increased likelihood of a hurricane coming close to or hitting Texas’s coast compared to a report issued earlier this year. 

The Thursday forecast from Colorado State University indicated a 59 percent likelihood of a hurricane coming very close to or making landfall in Texas, up from 54 percent in April. It also showed a 28 percent chance of a major hurricane coming within 50 miles of the state’s coast, compared to a 25 percent chance in April. 

“We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022,” the report said. 

“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” it added, encouraging coastal residents to prepare for the upcoming season.

The forecast predicted 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five Category 3 or higher hurricanes will take place in the coming season. Those figures each marked a jump from their categories’ respective forecasts in April.

The average hurricane season has seen 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three other major storms, and the more recent higher figures show the potential severity of the 2022 season.

However, the forecast noted the nature of unpredictability that comes with hurricane season. 

“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early June,” the forecast added. 

Last year, the Atlantic saw its third-busiest hurricane season with 21 named storms and seven hurricanes, including four that were considered major, according to KXAN, a local Nexstar affiliate in Austin, Texas.