Democrats, Republicans and their outside allies are matching each other nearly dollar for dollar in Senate battleground races across the country.
While Senate Republicans are expected to slightly outspend Democrats, once money from outside groups is factored in, it’s unlikely to prove decisive in any of the swing-state races.
{mosads}Instead, the crucial factors will be voter turnout, the margin of victory for the next president and the performance of the individual Senate candidates, political strategists say.
Senate Democratic leaders last month sounded the alarm over what they saw as a significant cash advantage for Republicans. Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) told The Associated Press the spending by outside groups was “worrisome.”
Durbin said that while Democrats recruited strong candidates, “a massive infusion of Republican money in the last few weeks” could upset the balance, adding, “We are working overtime to try to keep up with it.”
Senate Republican sources say the fundraising disparity claims from Durbin and other lawmakers is exaggerated.
“Democrats have the ability to tap what seems like unlimited cash. They say the sky is falling and Republicans are going to outspend us, but that’s just a way to just generate more fundraising appeals for them,” said a Senate GOP strategist.
“The states where there is a disparity of spending are states where the Democrats are losing and checking out of,” the source added, pointing to the Senate races in Ohio and Florida. “They will marshal the resources to be on the air and have parity in competitive races. Ultimately the question is how the money is going to be spent.”
Non-partisan political experts agree the fundraising disadvantage is less than what Democratic leaders claim.
“I think Democrats are putting too much stock in the idea that they’re getting roundly outspent,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the Cook Political Report.
A Senate Democratic strategist said Tuesday that liberal third-party groups would be making major media buys in October and early November.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has more cash on hand than its counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). That’s largely due to the decision by NRSC Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and executive director Ward Baker to spend heavily over the summer before the television airwaves got too cluttered in September and October.
The DSCC reported $34 million in cash on hand at the beginning of September, while the NRSC reported $11.9 million.
Democratic candidates also reported big fundraising hauls in the third quarter.
Pennsylvania Democratic candidate Katie McGinty on Wednesday reported collecting $5.2 million over the past three months for her race against Sen. Pat Toomey (R) — in addition to the $1.1 million she raised for the state Democratic Party.
Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D), who is running for his old seat in Wisconsin, also reported raising $5.2 million in the third quarter, while North Carolina Democratic challenger Deborah Ross raised $4.25 million.
But a Senate Democratic strategist said the cash advantage enjoyed by the DSCC — and bolstered by the strong fundraising of individual candidates such as McGinty and Ross — will be matched by the spending of GOP third-party groups.
This was true in Indiana last month, where outside GOP-allied groups spent $5 million helping Rep. Todd Young (Ind.). The candidate only spent $1.3 million in conjunction with the NRSC, according to a GOP source who tracks media buys.
Young’s opponent, former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D), has a massive war chest. He and the DSCC spent $3.2 million.
The DSCC spent $1.5 million on independent expenditures in Indiana, compared to the $175,000 spent by the NRSC.
A Senate Democratic strategist, however, estimated the amount spent by outside GOP groups was closer to $4.2 million since Aug. 30.
In the end, the money spent by both sides in the most competitive battlegrounds will be about even, strategists and non-partisan experts say.
“Whatever Democrats spend in the final month will be matched dollar for dollar,” Duffy, of the Cook Political Report, said.
How the spending breaks down
A review of spending by candidates, party committees and outside groups since Aug. 30 shows parity in the most competitive Senate races.
In New Hampshire, the DSCC spent $2.8 million on independent expenditures helping their candidate, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Meanwhile, Hassan and the Senate committee spent $2.6 million, including coordinated funds, and outside Democratic groups spent $10 million, according to a GOP strategist who tracks media buys.
The NRSC spent $2.9 million on independent expenditures in the Granite State for Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) since Aug. 30, while the party committee spent $1.8 million and outside Republican groups spent $11 million.
All totaled, Democrats have spent $15.4 million in New Hampshire since Aug. 30, while Republicans have spent $15.7 million.
A Senate Democratic strategist quibbled with those numbers, reporting that Ayotte and coordinated spending from the NRSC totaled $1.87 million and spending by outside Republican groups amounted to $11.2 million.
In Pennsylvania, the DSCC has spent $2.9 million on independent expenditures since Aug. 30, while McGinty’s spending and DSCC coordinated funds have totaled $2.7 million and outside Democratic groups have spent $12 million.
The NRSC has spent $2.8 million in Pennsylvania during that time, while Toomey and the party committee have spent $4.4 million. Outside Republican groups have spent $13 million, according to the GOP source tracking media buys.
Democratic spending in the Keystone State since the end of August has totaled $17.6 million and Republican spending has come to $20.2 million.
A Senate Democratic strategist who tracks media buys said total Democratic spending in Pennsylvania since Aug. 30 was $16.3 million and total Republican was $17.9 million.
In North Carolina, according to the sources in both parties who tracks media buys, the DSCC spent $1.286 million on independent expenditures since Aug. 30, while Ross and the DSCC spent $2.5 million, including coordinated party funds, and outside Democratic groups spent $1.56 million.
The NRSC did not spend anything on independent expenditures in North Carolina during that time. The spending by the incumbent, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), and coordinated spending from the NRSC totaled $2.2 million, while outside Republican groups spent $4.3 million.
Democrats have spent a total of $5.35 million in North Carolina and Republicans have spent $6.5 million since Aug. 30.
In Nevada, the DSCC last month spent $3.6 million on independent expenditures to help their nominee, former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. Cortez Masto and the party committee together spent $2.6 million and outside Democratic-allied groups spent $9.5 million, according to a GOP source who tracks media buys.
The NRSC spent $2.6 million in independent expenditures in Nevada to help Republican Rep. Joe Heck, while Heck and the committee together spent $1.9 million and outside GOP-allied groups spent $9.8 million.
In total, Democrats and their allies spent $15.7 million in Nevada since Aug. 30 and the Republican side spent $14.3 million.