Poll: Clinton holds narrow lead over Sanders in Iowa

Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa just four days before the caucuses, a new poll finds.

A Monmouth University survey released Thursday found Clinton taking 47 percent support compared to Sanders’s 42 percent. Polling in Iowa has been erratic, and the new survey shows a far closer race than the same poll from December, when Clinton had a 55 to 33 percent lead.

{mosads}The Iowa Democratic caucuses appear headed for a photo finish as the candidates head into the final weekend before votes are cast. Of the last six polls of Iowa, Clinton has led in three and Sanders has led in three, with the RealClearPolitics average of polls showing the candidates locked in a virtual tie.

The race continues to break along age and gender lines.

Clinton is boosted in the new Monmouth survey by a double-digit lead among women. Sanders holds only a 3-point lead among men in Iowa.

Sanders, meanwhile, is clobbering Clinton among younger voters, leading 59 to 31 percent. Clinton mops up among voters over the age of 50, leading 54 to 34 percent.

Sanders will need to turn out his younger cohort of voters, many of whom have not participated in the caucuses before.

The survey found Clinton leading among Democrats with a history of participating in the caucuses, 47 to 39 percent. However, that’s down considerably from her 57 to 30 percent lead in the previous survey.

“Support for Sanders has come from those who are new to the process, but the current poll indicates he is also cutting into Clinton’s lead among die-hard Democratic partisans,” said Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray.

Monmouth is expecting 110,000 Iowa Democrats will turn out for the caucuses. The university’s model shows the race tightening as turnout grows, with 200,000 voters pushing the contest into a tie. The Democratic record for caucus turnout happened in 2008, when 240,000 voters propelled then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to victory.

Martin O’Malley could play a critical role. He is currently pulling 6 percent support in the Hawkeye State, where the caucus rules state that if a candidate fails to reach the 15 percent threshold, those supporters will be asked to support another candidate.

The Monmouth survey found O’Malley supporters lean toward Sanders but not in a statistically significant way.

The Monmouth University poll of 504 likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa was conducted from Jan. 23 to 26 and has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error.