Debate game plans: What Clinton and Sanders need to do

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are entering Saturday night’s Democratic debate in vastly different positions.

Clinton flies to Des Moines holding the strongest frontrunner position in recent memory. 

{mosads}She leads Sanders (I-Vt.) by crushing margins nationally, and has pulled away from him in Iowa, where the two stood about even in mid-September.

Even in New Hampshire, a heavily white and liberal state seemingly designed as a victory for the neighboring Vermont senator, Clinton is rapidly narrowing Sanders’ lead. 

The dynamic leaves Clinton seeking to avoid mistakes at the second Democratic debate, while Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley — the only other candidate on stage — will be seeking to do anything to change the contest’s course.

Here’s what each of the candidates needs to accomplish.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton was the aggressor at the first debate.

She attacked Sanders directly over his past support of gun rights, and accused him of sexism after the debate because of his comments about people shouting over guns.

This time, Clinton may have little to gain from attacks.

She needs Sanders supporters to back her in the general election, after all, so a direct assault could be counter-productive.

“All those white progressives that love Bernie Sanders, do you think Hillary attacking him would get them to come to her? No. It’s going to make them push further away,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who masterminded former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s insurgent liberal campaign in the 2004 Democratic primaries.

Given her recent polling, Clinton “can afford to let the people who like Bernie Sanders a lot continue to like him and not try to in some way make them feel negative about him,” Trippi said.

“There’s no gain for her in doing it, and the risk is that those people move even further away.”

Democratic  strategist Christy Setzer argues Clinton needs to “stay the course.”

“She has momentum, she’s consolidated many of the undecideds and soft Bernie supporters, and she even looks like she’s enjoying herself once in a while,” Setzer said. “Now, she just need to avoid the usual landmines and keep her attacks focused on the Republicans.”

This doesn’t mean Clinton is approaching round two lightly.

The Democratic frontrunner holed-up all day Thursday and Friday, with no campaign events on her schedule, to prepare for the big night. 

One longtime Clinton ally noted that Clinton does very well in preparing for these “big moments.”

“She comes in prepared,” the ally noted. 

The preparation is key to Clinton’s performance. She’ll be the favorite on stage given her success at the October debate, and her prowess on stage in 2008.

“This is clearly her forum. She does really well in debates and her performances bolster Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons.

Bernie Sanders

Sanders arrives in Des Moines in a starkly different position than he was when he entered the first Democratic debate.

It’s not as if his polling numbers are in freefall — in fact, he seems to have consolidated slightly more than 30 percent of the national primary vote. Yet his momentum has clearly stalled.

The Vermont independent now faces a decision: Does he stick to his promise to run a solely positive campaign — one in which he has refused to prod at Clinton’s most sensitive ethical issues — or does he decide that the only way to drain her support is to attack her vulnerabilities?

One of the most skillful debaters on either side of presidential politics, 2012 Republican candidate Newt Gingrich, has no doubt what Sanders needs to do. 

“I think [Sanders’] problem is very straightforward,” Gingrich said in a telephone interview. “He has to make Hillary unacceptable to liberal voters, whether it’s on the grounds that she’s unreliable or on the grounds that she is dishonest.

“But if he doesn’t find a way to make her unacceptable, the weight of her money and the weight of her machine, she’ll be the nominee.

“He can draw a very nice contrast and get 35 percent of the voter but he’s not getting the next 15 percent without in some way making her unacceptable,” Gingrich concludes.

Asked what he would do if he were Sanders preparing for this debate, Gingrich, whose strategic advice is widely sought by GOP presidential candidates, offered Sanders some potentially potent attack lines: “She had four years as secretary of state to kill the Keystone pipeline. She didn’t. She had four years as secretary of state to negotiate a good agreement with the Pacific trade. She didn’t.”

“I’d go through that kind of thing, and take a whole series of things that left-wing voters will resonate to. And just point out that… Hillary the candidate always promises the opposite of what Hillary the incumbent did.” 

Beyond that, Sanders must use Saturday’s debate to broaden his appeal beyond white progressives to African-American and Hispanic voters, who are core constituencies in the Democratic Party electorate. Sanders has been trying hard to do just so in recent months, hiring an African-American criminal justice activist as his national press secretary and finally taking the Black Lives Matter movement seriously after early missteps. 

But African-American voters remain solidly behind Clinton, and unless Sanders can eat into her overwhelming support among that voting bloc in states like South Carolina, he has next to no chance of winning the nomination.

Martin O’Malley

Since O’Malley announced he was running for the Democratic nomination for president in late May, the former Maryland governor has banked little money and even less voter support. 

Languishing in both state and national polls, O’Malley has been written off by most commentators.

But with Sanders’ momentum slowing — and with many Democratic voters unwilling to risk nominating a socialist in a general election — O’Malley has in this debate his best opportunity yet to convince voters to take another look at his candidacy. 

He is a generation younger than Clinton and Sanders, has executive experience, and is solidly liberal. Many Democrats remain unenthused about Clinton, so there is still room for O’Malley in this race.

For O’Malley, this debate “is it,” says Aaron Kall, the University of Michigan director of debate. 

“He’s a real wildcard. If there’s anyone that doesn’t have much to lose and could be expected to go negative or take a real strong shot at the frontrunner, Sec. Clinton, it could be O’Malley. 

“I expect there to be a point where O’Malley tries to take a shot and how Sanders reacts to that could be really important,” Kall said.

Ben Kamisar contributed to this report.