OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Two weeks until the election

Vice President Biden will hold a campaign rally in Ohio and then return to Washington, where he and Dr. Jill Biden will host a reception at the Naval Observatory commemorating Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

Paul Ryan will give a speech on upward mobility and the economy at Cleveland State University in Cleveland, Ohio, at 2:20 p.m.

{mosads}Ann Romney will be campaigning in Florida, where she’ll drop by Wright’s Gourmet House in Tampa, Fla., at 12:40 p.m., stop by Fresco’s Bakery & Bistro in Lakeland at 2:40 p.m., and then attend a campaign rally in Winter Park at 4:20 p.m.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) begins a two-day bus tour across Florida for Romney, with stops in Titusville, Merritt Island, Fort Pierce and Boca Raton.

TWEET OF THE DAY: “Happy 45th Birthday to my husband John! If only you had a twitter account you would get this since I forgot a card.” — Sen. Amy Klobachar (D-Minn.) 

POLL POSITION:

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 5 points, according to Tuesday’s Gallup daily tracking poll. Romney takes 51 percent support to Obama’s 46 in the survey of likely voters.

Romney seized a narrow advantage in Tuesday’s tracking poll by the Washington Post and ABC News, leading Obama 49 percent to 48. On Monday, Obama lead Romney 49 percent to 48.

Obama and Romney still in a tight, margin-of-error battle within key swing states, with the candidates trading 2-point leads in New Hampshire and Nevada. Romney holds a narrow 49 to 47 percent lead in New Hampshire, having pulled even with independents and dominating the president among men and older voters. But the president holds an identical overall lead in Nevada, dominating independents 50 to 44 percent in the state.

AD WATCH:

The pro-Mitt Romney super-PAC Restore Our Future launched an $18 million advertising blitz in 10 battleground states. The blitz includes two ads, with one titled “Genuinely Cares” aiming to personalize the GOP nominee and a second, “Better,” hammering President Obama on the economy. The ads are set to appear in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Priorities USA, the super-PAC supporting Obama’s reelection, released a new ad hammering Romney over his tenure at Bain Capital. The ad is part of a multimillion-dollar television and online ad campaign set to air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Romney’s campaign is out with a new campaign ad after Monday’s debate attacking Obama over cuts to the military. Romney’s ad, which likely has an eye toward Virginia, a military-heavy battleground state, criticizes Obama for $1 trillion in cuts to the Pentagon that could occur if sequestration goes into effect.

In a new TV ad, Obama delivers a direct-to-camera address, sharing his plans for a second-term agenda and arguing that his administration has made “real progress” in addressing the nation’s challenges.

Romney’s campaign unveiled a new ad, touting the GOP nominee’s policies as a “clear path” to restoring the nation’s economic health.

In another new ad, called “Apology,” Romney says foreign leaders looked at the president’s Middle East tour and “saw weakness.”

Crossroads GPS, a GOP outside group, is out with an emotional ad featuring the parents of a boy who died of cancer talking about how Romney helped him in his final days.

Restore Our Future will launch an advertising campaign in Maine with a $300,000 buy later this week, CNN reports. The super-PAC, which supports Romney, will air ads in the Bangor, Presque Isle and Portland-Auburn markets. While Maine is not a state Romney necessarily hopes to win, it’s one of two — Nebraska is the other — that can split its electoral votes by district.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE:

CALIFORNIA: Scott Peters (D) released an internal poll showing him with a 45 to 40 percent lead over Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.).

FLORIDA: Rep. Dan Webster (R-Fla.) leads Democrat Val Demings by only 2 points in a poll commissioned by the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee, with 43 percent to Demings’s 41 percent; Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) only leads Republican challenger Rep. Connie Mack by 4 points in the same poll. And Democrat Lois Frankel released an internal poll that put her ahead of Republican Adam Hasner by 10 points, with 47 percent support. Previous independent polls of the race have indicated it’s a dead heat.

ILLINOIS: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) returned to the Mayo Clinic on Tuesday, according to his father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson. And former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) stopped in Chicago to endorse Reps. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) and Robert Dold (R-Ill.), two socially centrist Republicans running tough races in heavily Democratic districts. Notably absent was Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), a controversial freshman who faces long odds for reelection. Meanwhile, Walsh’s opponent, Tammy Duckworth (D) is out with a blistering new ad slamming him as a “deadbeat dad” for failing to pay child support while donating money to his own campaign. 

MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe endorsed Republican Richard Tisei for the 6th District, calling him “an excellent blueprint for New England Republicans.” Incumbent Rep. John Tierney (D) remains dogged by an investigation into his family’s gambling ring, which he has said he knew nothing about but which has played prominently in Republican attacks.

NEW YORK: The Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee launched its first ad in New York’s 27th District, targeting Republican Chris Collins, who is running against vulnerable incumbent Rep. Kathy Hochul (D). The ad charges that Collins shipped jobs overseas to China, and that he’s “looking out for his bottom line.”

TENNESSEE: Democrat Eric Stewart is targeting Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R), the abortion-rights opponent currently plagued by revelations that he urged his mistress to get an abortion, with a new ad that says that “headlines tell the story: Congressman Scott DesJarlais let us down” as news clips outlining the scandal appear on the screen. The ad closes with “Eric Stewart: Tennessee jobs, Tennessee values.”

SENATE SHOWDOWN:

American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed super-PAC, and its nonprofit arm, Crossroads GPS, are pouring $8 million into eight competitive Senate races nationwide — the groups’ biggest Senate effort yet. Crossroads GPS will target Heidi Heitkamp (D) in North Dakota, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio, Rep. Shelly Berkley (D) in Nevada, Angus King (I) in Maine and Tim Kaine (D) in Virginia with $5.8 million in ads, and American Crossroads is targeting Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana and Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) in Wisconsin with $2.2 million.

ARIZONA: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is hitting Rep. Jeff Flake (R) with an ad that appeals to three voting blocs: veterans, women and seniors. An internal poll released by Democrat Richard Carmona‘s campaign put him ahead of Flake by 4 percent, with 45 percent support to Flake’s 41 percent support. The poll comes as dueling ads, one from the DSCC and one from PAC American Commitment supporting Flake as “our best choice,” were released.

CONNECTICUT: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is targeting Republican Linda McMahon‘s position on Medicare — an increase of $5,000 in fees for seniors, according to the ad — and Social Security — to sunset the program — the ad says. It also notes that McMahon has spent $70 million of her own funds on her two Senate bids, making her one of the highest self-funders ever to run for the Senate.

And Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leads McMahon by 6 points in a new poll commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, with 46 percent support to McMahon’s 40 percent support and 12 percent of likely Connecticut voters undecided. Two recent polls indicated a closer race, with Murphy up by only 1 and 4 points, but McMahon has run a much stronger campaign than she did in 2010 and has kept the race close throughout the general election.

INDIANA: Donnelly has maintained a narrow lead over Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) in their hard-fought Senate race, according to a poll from Donnelly’s campaign. Donnelly leads Mourdock by 40 to 38 percent, with 8 percent of voters backing Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning, according to the poll.

MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) released a new ad featuring veterans in Missouri touting her efforts to support them. They say that she’s supported their healthcare, and one says he doesn’t “think I can trust Todd Akin” to take care of his sons, currently serving in the military. The incumbent also announced that she would be canceling campaigning for the rest of the week to spend time with her mother, who is in intensive care at a St. Louis hospital.

MONTANA: Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) is hitting the road to fire up support for GOP Senate candidates opposed to Obama administration rules on coal and other energy sources. Inhofe began his tour in Montana, where he touted Rep. Denny Rehberg’s (R-Mont.) coal credentials. Majority PAC is also up with an ad, saying Rehberg voted to cut student loans, veterans’ benefits and Medicare while voting to raise his own pay. He’s locked in a tight race with Tester.

NORTH DAKOTA: Rep. Rick Berg (R) reached the 50 percent threshold in yet another poll, out from conservative pollster Rasmussen, which put Democrat Heitkamp behind him by 5 points. It’s the third independent poll of the race out this month, one of which put Berg ahead by 10 points and another that put the two candidates tied. An independent poll from Quinnipiac is due out on Wednesday.

PENNSYLVANIA: Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC, is buying ad time to help out Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), the latest sign that his race against businessman Tom Smith (R) has tightened. 

VIRGINIA: Former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) is out with a new ad tying Kaine to President Obama on the stimulus, healthcare, energy and looming defense cuts. The two are locked in a tight race. Majority PAC released an ad hitting Allen on deficit spending, Medicare and outsourcing.

WISCONSIN: Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) is out with a new ad against Baldwin, blasting the Senate candidate for voting against a bill that, in part, would memorialize the victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

Paul Ryan had a ready retort for President Obama’s “horses and bayonets” zinger at Monday night’s foreign policy debate. “The ocean hasn’t shrunk,” Ryan said in an interview on CBS’s “This Morning.” “You still have to have enough ships to have the footprint that you need … to keep our strength abroad where it needs to be.”

Vice President Biden said Mitt Romney “proved he is not ready to be commander in chief” during the final presidential debate.

Obama delivered an extended riff on his administration’s handling of the $80 billion bailout of the U.S. auto industry during his second campaign appearance of the day Tuesday in Ohio.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) released his closing argument for the election, summing up all that the GOP conference sees wrong with the Obama presidency. The new report, titled “The Imperial Presidency,” seeks to absolve Republicans in Congress of responsibility for the slow economic recovery while also hitting Obama for broader policy failures.

Senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod defended his team’s decision to unveil a pamphlet of Obama’s policy proposals just two weeks before Election Day.

Romney’s love of peanut-butter-and-honey sandwiches is well-known, but only the people closest to him know he’s also crazy for Cocoa Puffs. “He loves all the sugary kid cereals,” Garrett Jackson, Romney’s “body man,” told CNN, also naming Honey Nut Cheerios and Honey Nut Chex as typical breakfast choices for the GOP nominee.

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