OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Debate night

by Emily Goodin, Cameron Joseph, Alexandra Jaffe, and Justin Sink - 10/16/12 10:30 PM ET

Tuesday night’s debate at Hofstra University in New York will be a town hall organized around audience questions. The Obama and Romney campaigns agreed in advance on rules specific to the town-hall format that rule out “follow up questions” and “comment” by the moderator.

{mosads}But Crowley never signed such an agreement, and told CNN that she plans on “facilitating a discussion” by asking follow-up questions and pressing when necessary for a response.

The debate begins at 9 p.m. and can be watched online at digital-stage.thehill.com, which will have full coverage and analysis of the event.

TOMORROW’S AGENDA TODAY: President Obama will be campaigning in Mount Vernon, Iowa, at 11:45 a.m. and in Athens, Ohio, at 6 p.m.

Vice President Biden will hold a campaign rally in Greeley, Colo., at 2 p.m. and in Reno, Nev., at 4:45 p.m.

Michelle Obama will be in New York to tape an appearance on “LIVE with Kelly and Michael” that will air Friday. She will also hold a campaign event in Woodbury at 12:20 p.m. and one in New York City at 6:25 p.m.

Mitt Romney will be campaigning in Virginia, with events in Chesapeake at 1:15 p.m. and Leesburg at 7:05 p.m.

Paul Ryan will hold a campaign rally at Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, Ohio, with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at 11:30 a.m.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) will be campaigning for Romney in Coralville, Ohio. Craig Romney will be campaigning in Greeley, Colo., and Tagg Romney will be campaigning in North Carolina’s Winston-Salem and Burlington.

TWEET OF THE DAY: “Well that was fun. Waited tables for lunch at Flat Branch in CoMO.I remember when tips and student loans got me thru.” — Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)

POLL POSITION:

In Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Mitt Romney topped President Obama by 4 points, 50 percent to 46.

Romney leads Obama nationally among likely voters, according to a Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by the liberal DailyKos website, which found Obama trailing Romney among likely voters 46 percent to 50 percent.

Romney has cut into Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, which founds that the GOP candidate now trails Obama by 4 points, 50 percent to 46, among likely voters in the state.

The latest Suffolk University/7News survey of New Hampshire shows Romney and Obama tied with 47 percent support each among likely voters.

AD WATCH:

Former President Clinton takes aim at Mitt Romney‘s tax plan in a new Obama campaign video released ahead of the second presidential debate.

Conservative super-PAC American Crossroads announced a new, $11.1 million ad campaign focused around a new commercial that serves as a rebuttal to an Obama campaign ad in which the president argues for a “new economic patriotism.”

A conservative women’s advocacy group pushed back against a celebrity-laden MoveOn.org commercial that attacked Romney, saying the stars in the ad “don’t speak” for all women. The Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee (CWALAC), which has previously targeted Obama in swing-state ads, accused the liberal group of trying to “scare women” with the ad.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched five new ads on Tuesday, targeting Rep. Bobby Schilling and Jason Plummer in Illinois (its fifth ads in both races), Jonathan Paton in Arizona (its fourth there), Rep. Frank Guinta in New Hampshire and Rick Gill in California.

ILLINOIS: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) says he’s “not well” and is continuing his recovery from the medical condition that has forced him to take a leave of absence from Congress.

RHODE ISLAND: President Obama has endorsed Rep. David Cicilline (D) in his bid to keep his seat against Republican Brendan Doherty.

SENATE SHOWDOWN:

Crossroads GPS, the nonprofit arm of the Karl Rove-backed group American Crossroads, is launching a $5 million ad buy targeting Democratic Senate candidates in seven states nationwide, including its first foray into the Maine Senate race.

ARIZONA: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) and Democrat Richard Carmona echoed many themes from their first debate in their second on Monday, but launched a new back-and-forth on Flake’s persistent attacks on Carmona’s temperament. And Carmona launched a new ad, his second that attempts to defend himself against Republican attacks on his temperament. The ad, titled “Mom,” features Carmona speaking directly to the camera about advice his mother gave.

CONNECTICUT: Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon met for the third of four debates in their battle for the Senate seat in Connecticut, jousting in front of a crowd so rowdy their boos and cheers caused the debate to go into overtime.

HAWAII: Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) now has the unique distinction of having, in a way, endorsed both competitors for Hawaii’s open Senate seat, after penning a letter to his supporters backing former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle. The letter comes despite Young’s endorsement of Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) in the state’s Democratic primary.

INDIANA: The first Indiana Senate debate featured both Republican Richard Mourdock and Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) trying to define each other along partisan lines, with Mourdock accusing Donnelly of voting in lockstep for President Obama’s agenda and Donnelly accusing Mourdock of being “an unapologetic leader of the Tea Party movement.”

MASSACHUSETTS: President Obama endorsed Democrat Elizabeth Warren in the Senate race in Massachusetts. The president rarely wades into down-ballot politics, so it’s indicative of just how important this race is for Democratic control of the Senate that he decided to weigh in on the race between Warren and Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.).

MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) raised almost $1.8 million in the third quarter and has more than $2.8 million cash on hand, while her challenger, former Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra, brought in $1.4 million over the same period and has $1.1 million cash on hand remaining.

MISSOURI: RandPAC, the political action committee founded by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) that has recently launched efforts in a number of Senate races, issued a new ad targeting Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) for supporting foreign aid to countries that, the ad description says, “work against our interests and disrespect us.” Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a poll that puts McCaskill ahead of Rep. Todd Akin (R) by 14 points, up from the 9-point lead she posted two weeks ago in another Democratic internal poll. The polling memo also says that voters are more likely to say that their opinions of Akin have grown less favorable based on what they’ve read or heard about him over the last two weeks.

NEVADA: The final debate between Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) featured the two candidates sparring just inches away from each other, as Heller accused Berkley of “capitalizing on other people’s misery” while Berkley accused Heller of shortchanging his female staffers, using congressional salary data.

NORTH DAKOTA: Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Rep. Rick Berg (R) focused mainly on the stalled farm bill in their debate, a central issue in the state and one that’s cropped up previously in Democratic attacks.

OHIO: Republican Josh Mandel and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) were fierce and combative at their first of three debates in the Ohio Senate race. Both repeated attacks launched throughout their general election campaigns — Brown hammered Mandel on hiring “unqualified political cronies” as treasurer, and Mandel framed Brown as a member of the Washington establishment. Brown raised $5.4 million in the third quarter for his reelection bid, besting Mandel, who brought in $4.5 million. But Brown spent more in the third quarter, shelling out $7 million in expenditures to Mandel’s $5 million.

PENNSYLVANIA: Two new polls released on Tuesday seem to show Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in trouble in his reelection fight, as he posts just within the margin-of-error lead in both. A new Quinnipiac poll shows his lead cut in half from the last poll, in late September, to three points, and an Allentown Morning Call survey shows his lead shrinking from 8 points in September to just two points this month. But a survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows him holding a steady 11-point lead, similar to the lead he posted in a PPP survey in July.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

At least a half-dozen professors who gave political donations to President Obama have been quoted in news articles opining about his administration and the 2012 race for the White House. The findings of The Hill’s months-long investigation come as Republicans have been crying foul, alleging a media bias for Obama and against Mitt Romney.

The Supreme Court said that early voting can proceed in Ohio — a major victory for Obama.

Alana Thompson, known as Honey Boo Boo, announced her support of Obama on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” Monday night.

Please send tips and comments to Emily Goodin, egoodin@digital-stage.thehill.com; Cameron Joseph, cjoseph@digital-stage.thehill.com; Alexandra Jaffe, ajaffe@digital-stage.thehill.com, and Justin Sink, jsink@digital-stage.thehill.com

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